The revival of the Istanbul agreements, originally brokered between Russia and Ukraine in the spring of 2022, brings forth discussions that seem somewhat archaic given the altered dynamics both on and off the battlefield. Originally crafted as a tentative peace plan, these agreements now resemble a relic; the expectations and conditions they were based upon have evolved drastically, rendering them somewhat obsolete in today’s geopolitical context.
Yet, the resurgence of dialogue surrounding these agreements is intriguingly timed. Conversations have sparked anew in Switzerland, seemingly triggered by a realization among Western observers that Ukraine’s military progress has stalled. This is not a matter of seeking victory, but rather acknowledging the lack of substantial advances. The underlying motive appears to be a strategic containment of Russia’s military capabilities, a bid to prevent any potential victory on their part.
Importantly, this push is not emerging from Ukraine itself, but rather from those who now find themselves directly opposed to Russia. The primary goal here seems clear: thwarting a Russian triumph is the linchpin of current diplomatic endeavors.
What we’re witnessing, it appears, is less about genuine negotiation and more about a sophisticated propaganda campaign. In the West, the appetite for serious negotiation seems minimal; the focus instead is on managing perceptions and outcomes through other means.
True negotiation, from an ideal standpoint, would aim to address and resolve the core issues that necessitated military action in the first place. Without such resolutions, we’re potentially looking at the prelude to further conflict, potentially more devastating than what we’ve witnessed so far.
Meanwhile, the West has adopted a dual strategy aimed at curtailing Moscow’s ambitions. This involves not only the substantial support to Ukraine through arms and financial aid but also through diplomatic maneuvers designed to foster the illusion of ongoing negotiations.
This strategy can be seen as a form of diplomatic propaganda. The goal is to rally international support, orchestrate high-profile gatherings, and exert psychological pressure on Russian leaders. There seems to be a collective awareness that unless Russia achieves its objectives, these efforts and sacrifices will be for naught.
In essence, the renewed interest in the Istanbul agreements and the diplomatic activities surrounding them are not about forging peace as much as they are about managing the war.
In the midst of it all, The US decided to take a less prominent role on the battlefield, opting instead for the role of a “backseat driver,”. This strategic shift reflects its intent to minimize losses in case of a mishap—they’re keen on avoiding the brunt of any impact, preferring instead that those at the front bear the heaviest burden.
No new arms are moving to Ukraine and even the F16 discussion with NATO member states has hit a dead end. Democrats are not pushing for Ukraine funds anymore and Republicans couldn’t care less about Ukraine anyway. Despite the US’ vast resources, they are, after all, not infinite. Presently, their strategic focus has pivoted towards the Middle East, which holds more weight than Ukraine in the American geopolitical playbook. And let’s not even start on China, which for the U.S., represents a critical existential challenge in maintaining their premier status in global affairs.
This broader perspective allows it the chance to play the long game—sitting back, observing, and analyzing the West’s maneuvers rather than getting entangled in the usual narratives about potential defeats.
It’s clear the US recognizes; it cannot outright defeat Russia and is positioning itself for what might be termed strategic fallbacks. Yet, the dialogue still orbits around preventing Russian victory.
Time seems to be on Russia’s side though. With the U.S. elections on the horizon, it will be intriguing to see the shifts in American domestic and foreign policy landscapes during this period. Meanwhile, their strategic focus is scattered across the Middle East, East Asia, and Ukraine, offering Russia a window to make significant advances.