Recent French national polls present a fascinating duel between the anti-establishment right and left, with President Emmanuel Macron’s Renaissance party facing a total collapse. It seems Macron might have overestimated his strategic prowess, imagining his chaotic political maneuvers were some kind of genius-level tactic.
The National Rally’s overwhelming victory in the European elections, achieving more than double the votes of Macron’s party, has ignited the usual unrest. The National Rally could easily turn this chaos into a campaign ad for the national elections, which Macron himself hastily called in a high-stakes gamble with the French populace. And who is promising to put an end to this unrest? You guessed it, the National Rally.
It appears that enough French voters are no longer intimidated by the Right-Wing label. The term doesn’t repel them as it once did. The Telegraph in Britain headlined, “France is on the brink of all-out civil conflict,” a scenario that has unfolded under Macron, not Le Pen. Macron has pushed his agenda through with his prime minister invoking Article 49.3 of the French Constitution at least 23 times, bypassing democratic processes, the second-highest usage since the Fifth Republic began in 1958. His move to extend retirement ages in a country known for high taxes has not helped his popularity. The latest Ifop poll shows his support plummeting to a mere 28%.
Macron’s snap election call was supposedly well-planned. He even boasted to Le Monde about it, claiming, “I’ve been preparing this for weeks, and I’m thrilled. I threw my unpinned grenade at their legs. Now we’ll see how they manage.” It turns out they’re managing just fine, while Macron’s party struggles. The recent Ifop poll predicts the total elimination of the establishment party in the first round of voting with only 19% of the vote. The right and left anti-establishment parties are projected to lead into the second round with 35% and 26% respectively. If the current unrest continues, voters will clearly see Macron as the arsonist, with the left trying to present the defeat of their right-wing opponents as the solution to the chaos. This likely won’t sit well with voters who dislike feeling manipulated.
Macron might have thought his moves would induce panic in opposing camps. The leader of Les Républicains proposed an alliance with Le Pen and then locked himself in party headquarters to avoid being ousted by colleagues. Meanwhile, the smaller anti-establishment right party Reconquête, founded by Eric Zemmour, expelled most of its elected Eurodeputies after Marion Marechal, Le Pen’s niece, allied with her aunt’s party. But these dramatic scenes wrapped up quickly, leaving Macron little to savor.
It’s truly a mystery how the establishment, both in France and Europe, has managed to lose the plot so spectacularly. Consider this: In May 2023, the EU approved $1.61 billion to buy out Dutch farmers, whose livestock were accused of environmental crimes. The farmers then formed the Farmer-Citizen movement, supporting anti-establishment Geert Wilders, whose party won the general elections and placed second in the EU vote.
In Germany, farmers and truckers protesting the EU’s burdensome regulations gathered at Brandenburg Gate. Their grievances resonated deeply with ordinary Germans, leading to the AfD’s strong showing in the EU elections. The establishment’s attempts to smear the AfD by associating them with the farmers only backfired, as it turned out a significant portion of the German public supported the protest movement.
In France, Macron’s heavy-handed approach at the Paris International Agricultural Fair, where riot police used tear gas, didn’t win him any fans among the 90% of voters backing the farmers. This overwhelming support translated into the National Rally securing 93% of the French communes in the EU elections. Coincidence? Hardly.
Who knew that disrupting people’s food supply and livelihoods while chasing costly ideological goals that interest only a small elite would lead to regime change? Now, the pressing question is whether Macron, having gambled and lost, will cling to power like the leaders he criticizes or if he will honor his democratic principles and step down, as a majority of French citizens (57%) reportedly desire.