Ukraine’s Kursk gamble is just going to backfire. The reason? Well, Belarus has seemingly made its mind to give a bloody nose to Kyiv.
As per media reports, Belarus may invade Ukraine soon, thus forcing President Volodymyr Zelensky’s men to run for cover and call off their offensive against Russia.
As per Ukrainian intelligence, Belarus has concentrated a significant number of personnel, including Special Operations Forces, weapons and military equipment in the Gomel region near Ukraine’s northern border under the guise of exercises. Reuters reported last week that a third of Belarusian army is now amassed at the borders with Ukraine and not just Belarusian troops, but mercenaries from the Russian Wagner Group have also been rushed to the borders. And guess what, a full-fledged invasion of Ukraine is on the horizon.
This move by Belarus and President Putin has put Zelensky and his Western masters in a fix. They never thought that Putin could use Belarus card to thwart their Kursk campaign. But Putin’s masterstroke has caught Kyiv off guard. And now Ukraine is left with no option but to plead with Belarus’s president Alexander Lukashenko to roll back the build-up on the border.
Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine on Sunday urged “Belarusian armed forces to stop unfriendly manoeuvres and transfer the forces away from Ukraine’s state border to a distance exceeding the range of the Belarusian weapon systems.”
What a joke! Ukraine suddenly wants Belarus to behave like a friend, the same nation he has derided in the past without fail.
Kyiv must know that Belarus is great political and economic ally of Putin. Its president Lukashenko is heavily indebted to Putin. Back in 2020, Putin helped him crush an uprising and cement his hold over power. It’s only because of Putin’s blessings that Lukashenko has ruled Belarus since 1994.
You see, Russia can anytime wield its influence over Lukashenko to open another front against Ukraine, something that can cause an instant collapse of Kyiv’s defence formation.
Even in 2020, Lukashenko had allowed Russian troops to station in Belarus during what Russia and Belarus called ‘drills’ before they launched their invasion in February. Russia had then used Belarusian territory as a staging post for attacks on Kyiv. The Belarus-Russia relationship has a nuclear angle too.
In April this year, Lukashenka had said that “several dozen Russian nuclear weapons” were deployed in Belarus. It was the first relocation of such warheads outside Russia since the fall of the Soviet Union.
You see, the military partnership between the two nations has grown deeper over the last years. Now, it could very well culminate into Belarus joining the fray and end the war once and for all, thus forcing Zelensky to crawl his way up to the peace table.
But make no mistake, Ukraine is no saint. And if Belarus is to be believed, Ukraine is itself amassing troops at the Belarusian border and is waiting for the right time to launch a Kursk-style invasion into Belarusian territory. Belarusian Defence Minister Viktor Khrenin last week said there was a high probability of an armed provocation from neighbouring Ukraine.
The minister said, “Given the presence of Ukrainian armed formations in the border areas, there is a high probability of preparing and carrying out armed provocations on our territory, as well as high-profile actions, including with the involvement of Belarusian nationalist formations”.
Lukashenko himself has hinted that if Ukraine ever tries to cross the Belarusian border, he will not shy away from using Russian nuclear weapons. He said, “We are not going to use any weapons until you step on our state border.”
President Zelensky had launched Kursk invasion to improve Ukraine’s situation at the negotiating table, but guess what; we may never need peace talks now. A two-front war against Ukraine may just force it to wave the white flag, to lay down its weapons and to desperately accept Putin’s peace terms.