The fear of attaining nuclear weapons by Iran is much higher than ever. On November 1, Kamal Kharrazi, an advisor to Khamenei, said Iran has the capacity to produce nuclear weapons and is prepared to change its nuclear policies if faced with an existential threat, as the country engages in a high-stake tit-for-tat with Israel in the last few months. Iran has already attained higher levels of technology in missiles, drones, and space programmes compared to other West Asian regional powers. The time has come for the world to understand Iran’s capabilities in terms of military might and act accordingly. The recent exchanges of attacks between Israel and Iran have clearly exhibited the capability and political will of Tehran. However, It is essential to understand how Iran is upgrading itself on the military ladder despite stringent economic sanctions from the West, especially from the US. It is also important to understand if there is any necessity of having nuclear weapons for Iran and if so. What are the reasons why they are not testing it despite enriching more than 60 per cent of Uranium? The article will try to answer the above question comprehensively for the reader.
Iran’s Capacity for Military Advancement
Homa Katouzian, in his book The Persian: Ancient, Medieval and Modern Iran, writes that due to geographical hardness, the Iranian villages are small, isolated and almost have been self-sufficient and productive unit, which highlights habitually Iranian are self-sufficient caused by their geographical conditions. At the same time, the Iranians have been facing sanctions since 1979. It’s been more than four decades, and they have become habitual of living in such conditions. However, being the second largest country in terms of geography and population in West Asia, Iran has the workforce and resources to survive. Substantive help from Russia and China in certain technological areas has also boosted Iranian technological superiority. Hence, despite stringent sanctions from the West, the Iranian habit of self-sufficiency, isolation, human resources, and help from great powers Russia and China has brought Iran to produce better military technologies in the field of drones, missiles and space.
Motivations Behind Iran’s Pursuit of Nuclear Weapons
Despite all these, It becomes crucial to understand a basic question: What compelled Iranians to aspire for Nuclear weapons, and how did they march on the path of getting one? The answer to the first question lies in the geopolitical aspiration of becoming a regional power in West Asia and a geopolitical rivalry with Israel. Being the second largest in size and population, Iran wants to spread its ideological and geostrategic presence in the region. Iran thinks that its presence will fulfil its aspiration of regional power, and Nuclear weapons will act as the jewel in the crown, as a nuclear weapon is considered a prestigious arm on the world stage. The necessity of having an atomic bomb becomes extremely important if a country’s adversary has one. Israel is believed to have a nuclear weapon, making it a nuclear opaque state as Israelis have not officially claimed it. Keeping in mind the balance of theory, Iran, as a rational state, has to have a nuclear bomb in order to create a balance in West Asia because its adversary has one. The way Pakistan tested its nuclear bomb after India’s successful attempt—the way India tested because the Chinese had done it. A nuclear weapon is not only a prestige weapon that balances the power but also acts as a credible defence against a bigger power. Conventionally, Israel is a bigger power in West Asia when compared to Iran due to the US, an all-weather ally of Israel.
The Evolution of Iran’s Nuclear Program
In order to answer the second question, how has Iran developed the required technologies and capabilities? One has to delve into Iran’s history of foreign policy since the 1960s. Iranian nuclear program started under the Shah of Iran in 1957 under the ‘Atoms for Peace’ initiative by the US, then Iran’s important ally. In 1967, the US gave a 600-gram-per-year capacity nuclear reactor, and Shah established the first Tehran Nuclear Research Center in the same year. The 1979 revolution, followed by the hostage crisis, pulled down US-Iran relations to no diplomatic ties. However, Iran did not stop. A well-known thief-cum scientist from Pakistan, AQ Khan, provided the necessary technologies and a P-1 centrifuge to Iran, which helped them to aspire for a Nuclear Weapon. In the 1990s, China also provided a huge quantity of uranium hexafluoride to Iran, which was yet again used for uranium enrichment. China also supplies a 27-kilowatt thermal miniature reactor and a heavy water, zero-power reactor to Iran. Russia also assisted by building the Arak Heavy Water Reactor and provided technology for fuel rods to be used in the reactor. Hence, technological help from all these countries and Iran’s own aspiration have lashed Iran with all the required material to go Nuclear.
The Absence of Nuclear Testing: Constraints and Considerations
After all these wonderful stories, one curious question arises in the reader’s mind—why is Iran not testing its nuclear weapons? There are two main reasons for this: firstly, international pressure and international law have been brought into place to stop nuclear proliferation, and Iranians do not want to bypass it without showing the world that it needs one in order to survive. For that, Iran wants to spread the idea that Israel is an existential threat to Iran globally, the way Isarelis does. However, Iran has failed to do so till date. Secondly, Iran is a theological state in which the political and spiritual leader is the Supreme Leader. The incumbent Supreme leader, Khamenei, issued an oral Fatwa (a formal ruling or Interpretation or an official statement of Islamic law given by a recognized authority) that forbade the production and using any form of weapon of mass destruction. Two years later, in August 2005, the Iranian government cited the fatwa in an official statement at the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) meeting in Vienna, which also became the Nuclear Doctrine of the Islamic Republic. Hence, without changing the current nuclear doctrine, any nuclear test nullifies a religious law, which brings Iran in a bad light as a theocratic state in the Muslim world as well as in the world.
Conclusion
Iran’s recent signals, including Kharrazi’s statements, suggest a possible shift in its nuclear doctrine amidst mounting pressure from Israel and heightened regional tensions. However, the geopolitical landscape, including potential changes in US leadership, could significantly influence Iran’s trajectory. While Tehran has demonstrated remarkable resilience and ingenuity in advancing its military capabilities, the decision to fully embrace nuclear weapons remains fraught with complex strategic, ideological, and international considerations.
Author:
Mr Anmol Kumar is a Research Assistant at Pondicherry University. His interests lie in geopolitics, power politics, and foreign policy in West Asia.