After a recent intense battle, the Arakan Army(AA) took the last barracks under the military Junta control in the Rakhine state of Myanmar, which lies along the border with Bangladesh. The fall of the last barracks has cemented the AA’s overall control over the Rakhine State, which was a long aspirational goal for them. For some time reports have been coming out that jihadi groups have been carrying out atrocities against the Buddhist population along the border with Bangladesh. According to claims going viral on social media and some media reports, the rebel Arakan Army is now in control of some territories of Bangladesh. 

The Arakan army has been clashing with the Military Junta for some time now. Once the Junta took over Myanmar in a coup d’état in 2021, it had followed it up with atrocities on its civilians. In response to these atrocities, the AA rose against it and started fighting the Junta. The AA plays a crucial role in Myanmar’s politics and society. It is also one of the most significant ethnic armed groups (EAGs) in the fight against the military Junta. The formation of the group is believed to be in 2009. After that, the group evolved rapidly by becoming a formidable force championing the rights and autonomy of the Rakhine (Arakanese) people.

On December 9, CNN and other media platforms reported that the most influential ethnic minority armed groups battling Myanmar’s army had claimed the capture of the last army outpost in the strategic western town of Maungdaw, gaining full control of the 271-kilometer (168-mile) -long border with Bangladesh. The capture by the Arakan Army completes the group’s control of the northern part of Rakhine state and marks another advance in its bid for self-rule there.

The group has achieved a step further in their objective of establishing greater self-determination and an independent federal state for the Rakhine region. The Arakan Army’s rise has brought different dynamics in Myanmar’s civil conflict, particularly since the 2021 coup by the military Junta. 

The Arakan Army

The Rakhine State and portions of Chin State are the main areas in which the Arakan Army remains active. The organization first clashed intermittently with the Myanmar military (Tatmadaw). But by 2018, the AA had intensified its activities and emerged as one of the Tatmadaw’s most formidable enemies. The gang uses guerilla warfare and has gained a sizable following among Rakhine people.

The AA’s course was drastically changed by the military takeover in February 2021. By mid-2022, the situation worsened, and new conflicts broke out despite the AA’s first tenuous ceasefire with the Junta. Large areas of Rakhine State, including vital infrastructure like highways and administrative systems, are under the AA’s control because of its clever tactics and growing might. Eleven of the seventeen townships in Rakhine and one in adjacent Chin state have fallen under the Arakan Army’s authority since November 2023.

The recent takeover of the Rakhine state by the AA is a major setback to the military and a ray of hope for the pro-democratic people in the country. However, the recent Chinese attempt to mediate between the Junta and the AA may push the long-term goal of bringing democracy to Myanmar.

Rohingya Issue

The news reports suggest that the Junta, which was responsible for the Rohingya displacement in the past, have strategically aligned with them in order to prevent the AA seize. The tactical alliance between the Rohingya Militant and Jihadist groups has fueled religious tension among the Buddhists and the Rohingyas along the Bangladesh border. The instability and increased radical environment in Bangladesh opened the gate for Rohingya to unleash violence on the Buddhist and Hindu minority areas near the Bangladesh border.

International organizations and human rights watch speculated that the persecution of Rohingyas may have taken place after the takeover of the AA, but the violence erupted from the Rohingyas’ side by killing, rapping and looting the Buddhist population. When AA tried to prevent this by attacking these jihadist elements, the jihadists used Rohingyas’ village as shelter. The tensions between the Rohingya, the AA and the Junta are expected to increase in the coming days, which will cause violence, looting and killings of people from both sides. 

International Involvement

The most important characteristic of any civil war is the involvement of the foreign actor. These actors get involved in the civil war in order to achieve geopolitical and strategic gains. Myanmar’s civil war is not different. It involves different domestic factions, such as EAGs like the Arakan Army, the National Unity Government (NUG), and the People’s Defense Force (PDF). The different international players, such as Russia, the US, and China, have varying degrees of involvement in the war. Without bringing them into the discussion, the analysis will fail to deliver a complete picture of the conflict. 

Russia

Russia has been a staunch supporter of the Myanmar junta, primarily through arms sales and diplomatic backing. Since the coup, Moscow has supplied the Tatmadaw with advanced weaponry, including fighter jets, helicopters, and air defence systems. This support has bolstered the Junta’s ability to suppress both civilian resistance and armed ethnic groups like the Arakan Army. Russia’s involvement reflects its broader strategy to maintain influence in Southeast Asiaand counterbalance Western powers. Russia has also blocked UN statements in the UN Security Council on the situation in Myanmar, where the council tried to accuse the Junta.

High-level diplomatic visits between Russian and Myanmar military officials highlights the depth of this relationship. Russia’s interest lies not only in arms trade but also in expanding its geopolitical footprint in a region increasingly contested by China and the West.

The US

The United States has taken a strong stance against the military Junta, condemning the coup and imposing sanctions on key military leaders and entities. While the US supports the pro-democracy movement led by the NUG and PDFs, its involvement has largely been indirect, focusing on diplomatic isolation of the Junta and humanitarian assistance to displaced populations.

Washington has been hesitant to engage directly with ethnic armed groups. The Arakan Army is not different due to their democratic values and concerns about legitimizing separatist movements. However, the US recognizes the importance of the EAGs in countering the Junta and may discreetly support efforts to unify opposition forces against the military regime.

China

China’s role in Myanmar is multifaceted and pragmatic. Beijing has historically maintained ties with both the Myanmar military and various ethnic armed groups, including the Arakan Army. China views Myanmar as a strategic corridor for its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), particularly through projects like the Kyaukphyu deep-sea port in Rakhine State. Officially, China supports the sovereignty and integrity of Myanmar. However, it has provided tactical support to the ethnic armed groups operating in the country. This strategic move provided China with the ability to maintain its leverage over the Junta to safeguard its economic interests. 

Beijing’s approach is guided by a desire to stabilize the region while preventing Western influence. However, tensions between China and the Junta have risen due to delays in BRI projects and the Junta’s inability to stabilize the country. Recently, after the AA gained formidable ground against the Junta, China wanted to mediate between them to stop fighting for its economic and infrastructural needs. 

Where does India stand?

India has a strategic and cautious approach to Myanmar’s civil war, driven by its geographic, security, and economic interests. Sharing a long border with Myanmar, India prioritizes border security, especially to prevent insurgent groups in its northeastern states from using Myanmar as a base. Stability in Myanmar is critical for India’s northeast, where cross-border conflicts could undermine peace efforts. Additionally, Myanmar plays a key role in India’s “Act East Policy,” which aims to enhance connectivity with Southeast Asia through projects like the Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project and the India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral Highway. These initiatives are vital for boosting trade and linking India’s remote northeast with global markets.

At the same time, India seeks to counter China’s growing influence in Myanmar. China has strong economic and political ties with both the military Junta and some ethnic armed groups, giving it significant power in the region. To compete, India has maintained diplomatic engagement with Myanmar’s military Junta, even after the 2021 coup, avoiding outright criticism. This allows India to secure its infrastructure projects and maintain cooperation on border security.

While India does not directly involve itself in Myanmar’s civil war, it monitors ethnic armed groups like the Arakan Army, which operates near its borders. India also provides limited humanitarian aid to address the refugee crisis caused by the conflict. The volatile situation of the Hindus in Bangladesh and other minority groups in the region is sure to draw the attention of New Delhi which will be looking to calm the neighboring region.