On January 23, two Iranian cargo ships, the Golbon and Jairan, caught the attention of global powers, journalists, geopolitical experts and academicians alike for their docking in a Chinese port. Reports highlight that Iranian cargo ships are present for a special strategic mission. The mission is to load 1,000 tons of sodium perchlorate, an essential for the production of ammonium perchlorate, a key ingredient in solid-fuel missile propellants. This has spooked the entire middle east as the move carries large scale ramifications for the region.
According to analysts, the development carries significant geopolitical implications. The sodium perchlorate loaded onto these vessels could potentially produce almost 1000 tons of ammonium perchlorate, which is enough to fuel approximately 260 ballistic missiles.
Iran’s Ballistic Power
Iran has one of the most powerful ballistic missile stockpiles in West Asia, with more than 3,000 ballistic missiles in 2023 by the US’ estimate. Tehran is seeking to replenish its inventories since it launched two large scale missile attacks on Israel. Iran has also earlier shipped missiles to Russia for the ongoing Russia Ukraine war.
Iranians have been known for their missile technologies and stockpile which has put Iran as a regional power in West Asia. Increasing number of nuclear facilities in the nation has also given rise to fears that the Iranians potentially becoming a nuclear power. Iran is closely allying with Russia and China to achieve their aims, not only cooperating on missile technologies and missile fuel but also trying to get assistance in their nuclear programmes, which is creating a nightmare scenario for the West. In upcoming years, cooperation on nuclear technologies, missile technologies and missile fuel is joining to intensify in the upcoming year which will bring a sense of security threat for the region as well as for the globe.
Previously, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has domestically produced these materials. However, after the direct confrontation with Israel, the Iranian production unit was severely damaged in retaliation from Israel in October 2024. The strikes destroyed planetary mixers essential for blending solid propellant, setting back Iran’s missile program by an estimated year or more. This shipment from China may be a critical step in avoiding those setbacks.
Iran’s growing power
Iranian nuclear programmes are very vast and extensive. There are more than nine nuclear plants, including, the Fuel Research and Production Center, Research Center and Fuel Enrichment Plant, which is considered as largest in the region. Few are deep inside the high and extended mountain ranges. The locations make it hard to target them. The potential of Iranian nuclear programmes is dangerous not only for the region but also creates a threat perception around the world. Today, China is providing missile fuel, an important material in defence export, tomorrow it may make Iran capable of Nuclear weapons, knowing China has strongly supported the Iranian nuclear agreement.
China supported and exported military equipment to Iran during the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s. Iran also got Chinese support in its missile program dates back to the 1990s and includes supplying expertise, technology, and raw materials. However, the military cooperation between the two countries was limited. Recently, the economic cooperation has increased between these two nations due to the stringent sanction on Iran from the West and the increasing geopolitical rift between the US and China.
The convergence of interest has led to increasing strategic cooperation between them that transcended beyond the economy to military one. The 2021 Strategic Partnership Plan between the two nations cemented their cooperation, including security, military, and economic domains. China’s ongoing purchase of heavily discounted Iranian oil has provided Tehran with an economic lifeline despite international sanctions and helped Iran to minimise the effect of sanctions on its economy.
The current shipment is an extension of the relationship that both countries have built against Western dominance. For China, a growing economic and military presence in West Asia is necessary for challenging the US dominance in the region. For Iran, collaborating with China will help economically in order to mitigate the effect of sanctions. By supporting Iran, China not only strengthens its geopolitical foothold in West Asia but also aligns itself more closely with a bloc of Russia and North Korea.
The geopolitical landscape of West Asia has changed since the Israel-Hamas war, where Iran’s forward deterrence in the form of proxies, such as Hezbollah and Hamas and friendly regimes such as Assad has been decimated or eliminated. A possible attack on Iranian Nuclear facilities has been looming large especially now after the return of Trump and Russia’s pull-out of Syria.
This situation has pushed Iran to strengthen its internal defence by military exercises and sign diplomatic agreements, such as the Iran-Russia Comprehensive Strategic Partnership in order to prepare for possible upcoming security threats. This unfolding strategic partnership where China is providing valuable material important for Missile fuel exhibits the growing clout of Iran regionally and China globally.
Also Read: Iran unveils new Air Defence ‘Laser beam’ system, shocks the west
Iran-China Axis
This development poses a significant challenge for the U.S. and its allies. The shipment of missile propellant highlights a gap in enforcement mechanisms under the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR), an international agreement aimed at curbing missile proliferation. Despite being a member of the MTCR, China has found ways to evade its commitments by covertly aiding Iran’s missile development.
For Washington, this shipment complicates efforts to press Beijing to limit its support for Tehran. The U.S. has already sanctioned Chinese entities involved in supplying missile components to Iran and other groups, such as Yemen’s Houthi militias. However, these measures have done little to deter Beijing’s actions. The deepening Iran-China partnership also creates a balance of power in West Asia by enhancing Iran’s ability, which may provide the deterrence capability to Iran that was destroyed in recent fighting with Israel.
The Iran-China alliance is part of a larger geopolitical realignment involving Russia and North Korea. This “Axis of Alternate” is represented by mutual support among authoritarian regimes seeking to counterbalance U.S. influence. For example, Iran’s missile shipments to Russia have played a role in the Ukraine conflict, while North Korea’s arms supplies have bolstered both Iran and Russia. Now, Chinese fuel shipment to Iran will help Iranians.
China’s role as a key enabler in this bloc extends beyond missile technology. By importing Iranian oil and facilitating Tehran’s access to international markets, Beijing weakens the effectiveness of U.S. sanctions. This undermines Washington’s broader strategy of using economic pressure to curb Iran’s nuclear and missile programs. The strategic alignment between these nations reflects a shared vision of challenging Western dominance in critical regions, including West Asia and Eastern Europe.
The U.S. and its allies face a difficult task in countering the growing Iran-China partnership. The West should understand the unilateral sanction regime is not effective, rather is pushing like-minded countries towards deeper cooperation and collaboration in every field. The technological, military, diplomatic and economic cooperation between these countries is for creating an alternate system where they can dodge any attack from the West collectively.
The shipment of missile propellants from China to Iran highlights the Iranian resilience of supply chains and outlines China’s growing presence in West Asia.
