War and violence are not new to the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). The huge African nation has been ripped apart over the years by intense civil war. Congo is blessed with rich mineral wealth and other raw resources which has attracted a number of global and regional players to meddle intensely in its affairs. Now the country is once again engulfed in violent conflict as rebel groups intensify military operations across the country.
The rebel M23 group, or the March 23 Movement, is a central player in the ongoing conflict. The group emerged from the remnants of the National Congress for the Defence of the People (CNDP), a Tutsi-led militia that integrated into the Congolese army under a 2009 peace agreement. However, in 2012, dissatisfied former CNDP fighters broke away, forming M23 and citing the government’s failure to uphold its promises to integrate them fully and protect Tutsi populations in the DRC. That same year, M23 briefly captured Goma before being pushed back by Congolese and UN forces.
With the country engulfed in civil war this week, a shocking incident took place where more than 100 female prisoners were raped and then burned alive during a jailbreak in the Congolese city of Goma, according to the UN. According to reports, Hundreds of prisoners broke out of Munzenze prison last Monday after fighters from the M23 rebel group began to take over the city. The same report highlights that most of the women were killed after the inmates set fire to the prison. Goma, a major city of more than a million people, was captured after the Rwanda-backed M23 executed a rapid advance through eastern DR Congo.
The M23
After a period of dormancy, the M23 had resurfaced in 2021 and launched an offensive in 2022, steadily gaining territory in North Kivu. M23 leaders say that they are fighting to protect ethnic minorities against a DRC government they accuse of fomenting hate speech and discrimination. Another key demand is the return of Congolese Tutsi refugees, many of whom live in Uganda and Rwanda, to Congo. The DRC government, however, considers the M23 a “puppet” of Rwandan interests.
M23 has strong links to Rwanda, whose government is accused of providing financial and logistical support to the rebels. A 2023 UN report confirmed Kigali’s backing of M23, though Rwanda denies this. Rwanda’s interest in supporting M23 stems partly from security concerns over Hutu militias operating within the DRC and partly from economic interests in the DRC’s lucrative mineral wealth.
On January 27, 2025, the rebel group seized the eastern city of Goma. This escalation marks a noteworthy turning point in a years-long instability plaguing the mineral-rich North Kivu province. The fighting continues as international calls for peace mount day after day. Every day, M23 is tightening its hold on the country. The situation has worsened the already dire humanitarian crisis, displacing hundreds of thousands of people and leading to mass casualties.
The government in Kinshasa (capital of Congo) has responded by severing diplomatic ties with Rwanda, accusing it of directly supporting M23. Kigali (the Capital of Rwanda) has denied the claim. Uganda has also been suspected of backing the rebels, though it, too, refutes these allegations. Under mounting international pressure, M23 recently declared a unilateral ceasefire to allow humanitarian aid into affected areas, but the violence has not ceased entirely.
The crisis is part of a pattern of instability that has defined the DRC for decades. While there are a number of armed groups fighting to control territory, foreign interests playing out, and deep historical grievances fueling the fighting, it is difficult to predict a road to peace in the conflict. However, the article discusses all the possible causes, the role of M23, DRC’s resources, the role of international and regional players, and the possible scenarios of the conflict.
DRC’s Resources
The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) has some of the world’s largest reserves of metals and rare earth minerals, such as cobalt, used in lithium-ion batteries that power electric vehicles. The Democratic Republic of the Congo produces up to 70% of the world’s cobalt. Coltan, which is used in electronics such as PlayStations and iPhones, is also abundant in the eastern DRC.
Mineral resources have long played a role in the ongoing problem, with numerous armed factions vying for control of rich diamond and gold mines and using the profits to fund wars. These groups’ leaders have been accused of children working in mines, as well as abusing and exploiting mining communities. During the civil conflicts, Rwandan and Ugandan troops robbed DRC minerals, but the International Court of Justice (ICJ) ordered only Kampala to pay reparations to the DRC for the economic harm inflicted.
A few countries currently mine in the DRC. Apart from China, Switzerland-based Glencore, which owns two copper and cobalt mines, Kamoto Copper Company (KCC) and Mutanda, is also involved in mining activities.
Lastly, the United Arab Emirates signed a $1.9bn deal with a state mining company in July 2023 to develop four mines for tin, tantalum, tungsten and gold in the turbulent eastern Kivu and Maniema provinces.
Hence, due to its vast natural resources, regional and global players are automatically involved and want to secure their own interests from the country. DRC’s resources have acted as a double-edged sword in escalating the conflict while simultaneously bringing peace for economic reasons.
Rwanda’s Role
Rwanda is deeply involved in the conflict, with accusations of backing M23 to counter the influence of Hutu militias, such as the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR), and to gain access to mineral resources. Rwanda provides material support to the M23, according to several reports by an independent panel of United Nations experts. According to the UN. panel reports, it has troops in North Kivu — up to 4,000, and its special forces oversee M23 units. Drone imagery has captured troops regularly crossing the border into M23-controlled territory for years. Rwanda has also deployed high-tech military equipment on the battlefield in North Kivu, including mobile air-defence systems and precision-guided munitions.
Rwanda says the conflict has deeper roots that need to be addressed. They claim that militias such as the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR), a Hutu rebel group which includes some of those responsible for the Rwandan genocide, are still active in eastern Congo. Rwanda accuses the Congolese army of fighting alongside them, an accusation the Congolese deny.
Apart from Rwanda, Uganda has also been accused of supporting M23 in the past, though it denies current involvement. Historically, Uganda has had economic and political interests in the DRC, particularly regarding resource exploitation. Some reports suggest Ugandan elements have provided indirect support to M23 to counter other armed groups operating in the region.
China and Global Mining Interests
China is a dominant player in the DRC’s mining sector. The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) stands out because of its vital role in the cobalt market. The DRC produces 80% of the world’s cobalt—Chinese state-owned enterprises and policy banks control 80% of the total output. China dominates among them, with its companies controlling 15 of 17 cobalt mines, according to the Australian Strategic Policy Institute. According to the Chinese Global Investment Tracker, China has invested 9.82 billion dollars in DRC. The ongoing conflict poses risks to its investments, and Beijing has advocated for stability to ensure uninterrupted mineral supply chains. This also has a counter effect on the economy of DRC; the disturbance might cause a withdrawal of Chinese investment. The way the Chinese have started doing it in Panama. Similarly, Western companies and governments reliant on the DRC’s resources are keenly watching the situation, though direct intervention remains unlikely.
Role of the West
The role of the West in the DRC conflict has been marked by perceived inaction and complicity. This has fueled local resentment, and people protested in February 2024. Despite well-documented Rwandan support for M23, Western nations have been reluctant to take decisive action, maintaining close ties with Kigali (the capital of Rwanda). The EU’s funding of Rwandan military operations in Mozambique, even amid allegations of Rwandan interference in the DRC, reinforced suspicions of Western bias. The United Nations peacekeeping force (MONUSCO) has also faced criticism for failing to protect civilians. These factors, along with the global community’s greater focus on conflicts like Ukraine and Israel-Palestine, have left many Congolese feeling abandoned and unheard, driving protests against Western embassies.
Current and Future Scenarios
The situation in the DRC looks highly volatile, and multiple possible scenarios could unfold:
Scenario 1: Escalation into a Regional War
If diplomatic efforts fail and the DRC pushes M23 back using increased military force, then Rwanda may continue its involvement on an increased level that could trigger a regional and wider conflict by engaging Uganda, Burundi, and other neighbours into the instability in the Great Lakes region.
Scenario 2: A Fragile Ceasefire
International pressure could force Rwanda and M23 to halt hostilities, leading to a temporary ceasefire. However, previous ceasefires have collapsed, meaning this would only be a short-term solution unless genuine political negotiations take place. International pressure may push Rwanda and M23 to stop their hostilities. The situation may lead to a ceasefire. However, previous ceasefires have failed so this would just be a temporary solution. For a longer peace, a genuine political negotiation is necessary.
Scenario 3: A Prolonged Insurgency
M23 could remain entrenched in the areas it controls, continuing low-intensity conflicts for years, much like other rebel groups in the region. This would prolong instability, preventing meaningful economic development and worsening humanitarian conditions.
Scenario 4: Diplomatic Resolution and Political Settlement
A political settlement is also possible in the near future, but only through consistent diplomatic engagement involving regional and international stakeholders. This would focus on the primary issues of how to ensure security for Rwanda, the rights of the Tutsi minority within the DRC, and how to disarm those armed groups active in the East, including both the FDLR and M23.
The renewed conflict in the DRC highlights deep-rooted ethnic tensions, foreign interventions, and economic motivations that continue to fuel instability in the region. M23, backed by Rwanda, has proven to be a formidable force, putting Kinshasa in a difficult position. The involvement of international players, including Rwanda, Uganda, Western powers, and global mining interests, complicates the crisis further.