According to recent reports by several Arab media, Egypt is intensifying and increasing military buildups in Sinai. The development along the Egypt-Israel border has raised fear of a future escalation among the people. Reports and satellite imagery suggest that Egypt has been strengthening its military presence in the Sinai Peninsula, sparking unease in Israel.
This comes amid Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi’s firm opposition to the controversial proposal—purportedly backed by the United States under Donald Trump’s influence—to relocate Palestinians from Gaza into Sinai and Jordan while developing a “Gaza Riviera.” Israel has taken note of the buildup, with Israeli Ambassador to the United States Yechiel Leiter calling Egypt’s actions a “very serious” violation of the 1979 peace treaty between the two nations.
The issue is set to be formally addressed by Israel in the near future. While Egyptian officials maintain that the military activity is defensive and aimed at securing the region against extremist threats, Israel remains concerned about the scale and nature of the deployments, which include elite Abrams tanks and newly built airfields.
The Egyptian military presence in Sinai has increased notably since October 7, 2023, when Hamas launched a deadly attack on Israel, prompting a massive Israeli military campaign in Gaza. Since then, Egypt has been instrumental in brokering ceasefire agreements between Israel and Hamas, along with the United States and Qatar. However, Egypt has also made it clear that it will not accept the Gazans into its territory. It may put pressure on Egyptian national resources and may also create a social and security problem for Egypt and Jordan. Egyptian officials have repeatedly reaffirmed that they will not allow any forced migration into Sinai, calling it a “red line.” As part of this stance, Cairo has postponed a planned visit to the White House.
Despite speculation, experts suggest that Egypt’s military buildup is unlikely to be a direct preparation for war with Israel. Hossam el-Hamalawy, an Egyptian researcher, dismissed claims of an offensive posture, pointing out that Egypt cannot deploy forces in Sinai without Israeli approval under the terms of the Camp David Accords.
The Multinational Force and Observers (MFO), an international peacekeeping organization, also monitors troop movements in the region. However, MFO officials have refused to comment on the latest reports. The Sinai Foundation for Human Rights (SFHR), a London-based advocacy group, noted that while there have been some changes to Egypt’s military profile, they have largely been focused on infrastructure rather than offensive operations.
Israel Remains Wary
Israeli officials, however, remain sceptical. After analyzing satellite images, security experts highlighted the changes in military deployment in the Sinai. Lieutenant Colonel (res.) Eliyahu Dekel, who has monitored Egypt’s adherence to the peace treaty since 1979, highlighted concerns over the type of tanks being deployed in Sinai, particularly the presence of Abrams tanks, which are usually reserved for elite combat units.
Additionally, Israel has identified three newly constructed airfields and large-scale tunnel networks, which it sees as potential breaches of the peace agreement. According to Dekel, Egypt has exceeded its permitted military presence in Sinai by four times the allowed number. Israel has previously approved additional Egyptian troops in the region to combat terrorist threats. However, the current buildup appears to be of a more than fighting terrorism and extremism, leading to increased Israeli suspicion.
Diplomatic tensions between Egypt and Israel have further escalated following Leiter’s statements accusing Cairo of violating the peace agreement. This marks one of the most significant challenges to the Camp David Accords in recent years. In response, Ron Lauder, President of the World Jewish Congress, held urgent talks with President el-Sisi in Cairo to de-escalate the situation.
El-Sisi reiterated his commitment to regional stability and emphasized that a two-state solution, including a Palestinian state in Gaza and the West Bank, remains the only viable path to lasting peace. Despite the heated rhetoric, economic ties between Egypt and Israel remain strong. On the same day as these high-level diplomatic discussions, reports emerged that Egypt was seeking to increase its gas imports from Israel by 58% by mid-2025.
Observers note that the public discourse around the Egyptian military buildup may serve multiple political purposes. For Egypt, the announcements bolster el-Sisi’s reputation as a tough leader who resists outside pressures while ensuring security in the Sinai. For Israel, emphasising Egyptian military movements would be a calculated step to put diplomatic pressure on Cairo over its resistance to the “Gaza Riviera” initiative and ongoing military expansion. Additionally, Israeli worries might be due to an even larger regional concern, with Egypt’s recent modernization of its military capabilities, including purchases of sophisticated equipment like submarines and aircraft.
Despite the heightened tensions, analysts believe that both sides will likely prioritize diplomacy over direct confrontation. Scheduled meetings between Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, and Jordan in Riyadh, as well as the upcoming February 27 summit, indicate ongoing efforts to build a unified Arab front to address the crisis. Though Egypt-Israel relations are looks complicated, diplomatic avenues continue to be available, and the two nations have long managed security issues without going to war. SFHR’s Ahmed Salem states that both nations have consistently surpassed authorized military deployments in Sinai but generally have solved differences through diplomatic channels instead of overt hostility since 1979.
As tensions continue, the next few weeks will be pivotal in deciding the direction of the situation. The role of international mediators, such as the United States, may prove to be instrumental in defusing the crisis. In the meantime, with regional alliances in flux and security concerns on the rise, the stability of the Egypt-Israel peace accord will be put to the test as both countries balance the fine line between strategic interests and diplomatic commitments.
