Brazil’s first round has delivered the shock that pollsters missed. Senator Flávio Bolsonaro finished first, with roughly 47 per cent of the vote against 45 per cent for President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, with over 99 per cent counted. Neither man cleared the 50 per cent threshold, so they meet in a run-off on October 25. If Bolsonaro wins, it would confirm a wider story. South America has been moving away from the left, and parts of the world are following.
What the numbers say
Bolsonaro won about 55.8 million votes to Lula’s roughly 53.2 million. The right also did well down the ballot. São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas was re-elected in the first round, and Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party won at least five governorships, with Republicanos taking three more, including São Paulo and Minas Gerais. Minas Gerais matters because it has backed the winner of every presidential election since 1985.
The run-off is far from decided, but Bolsonaro has the momentum. Polls show crime, corruption and the economy are top of voters’ minds, and these are issues on which the right is campaigning hard. Bolsonaro, 45, promises a tough line on crime and tighter spending control, and wants closer ties with Washington. Lula, for his part, is not conceding the argument. “Tomorrow we start a new campaign,” he said.
A continent shifting right
South America has 12 sovereign states, and seven now have right or centre-right governments: Argentina (Javier Milei), Chile (José Antonio Kast), Ecuador (Daniel Noboa), Paraguay (Santiago Peña), Bolivia (Rodrigo Paz), Peru (Keiko Fujimori) and Colombia (Abelardo de la Espriella).
Brazil would make eight. That would matter more than any earlier flip, because Brazil holds about half the continent’s people and its largest economy. Only Uruguay, Venezuela, Guyana and Suriname would remain outside the bloc.
Why the left is losing
Critics say the left has damaged its own cause. Venezuela’s collapse sent millions of refugees into neighbouring countries, and with them a cautionary tale. Argentina’s inflation hit 211 per cent in 2023 before Milei’s austerity brought it down to 31 per cent by 2025.
Brazil shows a milder version of the same pattern. Public debt has climbed to about 82 per cent of GDP, and the central bank pushed interest rates to 15 per cent last year. More than four in five households now carry debt. Voters also name violence as a top worry. Analysts blame the left’s decline on poor delivery, over-promising and corruption scandals.
A global pattern
Brazil fits a wider trend. Donald Trump returned to the White House in 2024, and Germany replaced a Social Democrat chancellor with conservative Friedrich Merz. In May, Labour lost almost 1,500 English council seats while Reform UK gained about 1,450. France’s nationalist right leads most 2027 polls.
Surveys suggest the mood is shifting. Latinobarómetro finds more centre-right Latin Americans than at any point in two decades, and most Brazilians under 40 place themselves on the right or centre-right.
The lesson is not that the left is finished. Voters punish whoever governs badly, and right now that has mostly been the left. Lula has already beaten expectations before, and the run-off will show whether Brazil wants change or a second look at the incumbent.
