Washington and Tehran are trading threats again, and renewed strikes on Iran now look like a matter of timing. On Saturday, Donald Trump said the US could deal with Iran’s remaining nuclear sites “in 10 minutes”. He singled out Pickaxe Mountain, an underground complex near Natanz that Washington links to nuclear work. Tehran denies any nuclear work there.
The same day, Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei ordered his commanders to update Iran’s target list. Both men are signalling resolve. Both are also bargaining. The real question is whether the bargaining ends before the bombing resumes.
Where does the war stand?
The US and Israel launched the war on 28 February. Their opening strikes killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and several senior officials. His son Mojtaba succeeded him and has not appeared in public since. Pakistani and Qatari mediation produced a truce in April and a peace memorandum in June. That deal collapsed in early July after Iran attacked commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz.
Since then, the war has become a contest of endurance. Washington blockades Iranian ports. Tehran attacks tankers and keeps Hormuz traffic far below pre-war levels. Brent crude recently climbed above $117 a barrel, up from about $72 before the war. In Yemen, the Houthis have seized the Bab al-Mandab chokepoint and keep firing drones at Saudi Arabia. Neither side has broken the other.
Diplomacy limps on regardless. Qatar and Pakistan still carry messages between the two capitals. Vice President JD Vance has written to Iran’s security chief, Mohsen Rezaei, proposing direct talks. Rezaei says the American “tone has completely changed”. Yet he insists Hormuz stays shut until Washington meets Iran’s demands on sanctions, frozen assets, the blockade and security guarantees.
Will strikes resume before the midterms?
Probably not, though the margin looks thin. On 8 October, Trump promised “there will be no attacks before the elections”. Americans vote on Tuesday, 3 November. Breaking that pledge two days out would gain him little and risk a great deal. Diesel prices have nearly doubled, and affordability dominates the campaign. One October poll put approval of his war handling at just 34 per cent.
The day after the vote looks very different. US officials say their forces could launch a major operation within 96 hours of an order. One called it “a big effort”. Washington has reportedly told Gulf allies to prepare for strikes as early as 4 November. Trump muses aloud about whether to “make a deal” or “finish them off”. Secretary of State Marco Rubio insists the president has not decided.
Trump has vetoed a return to major combat several times this year. For him, the threat of force doubles as leverage at the table.
Will the US and Israel fight differently this time?
Yes, chiefly in purpose. February’s campaign aimed at the top. It decapitated the leadership and openly sought regime change. The regime survived, and no uprising followed.
The new plans look narrower and more coercive. Planners reportedly envisage a short, intense operation rather than a long air war. Likely targets include nuclear sites, energy facilities, and missile and drone stocks. The goal is economic pain sharp enough to force concessions. Some officials expect Trump to spare oil infrastructure to contain American fuel prices.
Pickaxe Mountain poses the hardest problem. Weapons specialists doubt that the MOAB bomb, which Trump has floated, could destroy its granite depths. US officials also concede that Iranian forces now know American tactics better, which complicates targeting. By July, the war had consumed nearly two-thirds of America’s pre-war Patriot interceptors. That shortage favours a short war.
Israel, meanwhile, has refrained from striking Iran since July. Benjamin Netanyahu now presses for a joint return, calling the moment a “historic, one-time opportunity”. Yet his bloc won only 53 of 120 Knesset seats on 27 October, short of a majority.
How is Iran likely to respond?
Fast, hard and wide, if its leaders mean what they say. Khamenei has demanded an “immediate, impactful and geographically unrestricted response” to any threat. He also wants the target list to cover the enemy’s “tangible and intangible assets”. Rezaei has named oil facilities, undersea cables, data centres and AI sites across the Gulf.
Hormuz remains Tehran’s sharpest lever. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warns that any Israeli-led attack would have a “devastating impact” on global markets. US officials themselves expect Iran and the Houthis to strike American personnel and facilities immediately.
The gravest signal concerns the bomb. Rezaei says Tehran is debating whether to keep its ban on nuclear weapons if war resumes. He adds that Iran has taken no decision yet. Raids that damage a nuclear programme without ending it can harden the case for a deterrent.
What will decide the outcome?
Capabilities and stamina will matter more than slogans. Washington commands the skies but faces depleted stocks, uneasy Gulf hosts and a sceptical electorate. Tehran holds Hormuz, its allied militias and the endurance of a regime fighting for survival. A short, sharp campaign after 3 November now looks the likeliest path. Whether it ends the war or merely resets it depends on what Iran still holds afterwards.
