As the war between Ukraine and Russia enters the next phase, Ukraine is bound to surrender before the Russian military and will move ahead with signing the peace treaty. The Russians have bagged a one-sided victory in this conflict. They have forced the Zelensky government to bow down before ending the war. Putin has achieved all of this by just using the minuscule firepower of the Russian military.
As Russia charges towards a victory, it would be Putin who will decide the terms and conditions for surrender. Russia will be the one to carve out the clause that will feature in the peace treaty between the two countries.
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Here are a few of the points that are sure to feature in the Russia-Ukraine peace treaty 2022:
Russia expands its geographical area
It was Moscow’s smart move to recognize the breakaway Ukrainian regions of Donetsk and Luhansk as independent territories. Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the deployment of troops to these two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine from the start of the war. Once the crisis subsides, Russia is sure to keep the two regions inside its territory. This would surely be one of the conditions for the surrender of Ukraine.
Russia will keep the annexed snake island
On February 24th, the Russian navy attacked and annexed the snake island of Ukraine. Around 82 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered to the Russian forces. The Island is strategically important for Russia. It not only faces the 3 European countries of Romania, Moldova and Bulgaria but most importantly it helps Russia secure its warm water port in Crimea. Russia has many strategic assets in Crimea and the annexation of Snake Island will help Moscow to use the island as the surveillance, intelligence and reconnaissance hub in the region. It’s a reason enough for Moscow to keep the islands under its control after the end of the war.
Ukraine’s assurance for not joining NATO
The core reason for the Russian invasion is directed towards NATO’s plan to expand its influence near the Russian borders. NATO planned to include the former soviet states under its umbrella and encircle Russia with its military instalments. That’s what poked, irritated and forced Moscow to take stern decisions. Moscow sees the NATO expansion into its border as its biggest threat. In the peace treaty, Russia will include the clause to take a guarantee from Ukraine that it will never become a member of NATO. Ukraine will have to agree to the clause and that would provide Russia with assurance against NATO expansion.
Zelensky will have to leave the President’s chair
Another condition that the peace treaty will feature is that the incumbent president Zelensky and his government will have to abdicate from their position. They will also have to abstain from their respective political life hereafter. Moscow will design the condition in such a way that it will ensure the present Ukrainian leaders and officials are not able to return to power ever.
A new government under Russian surveillance
Russia will also ensure that fresh new elections are organized in Ukraine and a new government takes the seat. A new Russian version of free and fair elections will give rise to a pro-Russia government. It will make Ukraine come under the security umbrella of Russia. Ukraine will also come under the influence sphere of Moscow. Moscow will thus try to ensure that every subsequent government in Ukraine is pro-Russia.
Russia will restrict Ukraine’s military might
Kremlin will play the deterrence game to avoid any future Ukrainian military misadventure by restricting its military might and strength. It will also restrict Ukraine’s military expansion in the bordering areas. The peace treaty will most probably include a clause that will stop Ukraine from increasing the numbers of its police, military and paramilitary forces beyond a certain number. The clause may also include a restriction on the deployment of military hardware and weapons in Ukraine’s borders with Russia.
Russian nuclear reach will expand
Russia has annexed Donetsk and Luhansk from Ukraine and is willing to keep the two regions under Russian control. This gives Russia a chance to expand its nuclear boundary closer to Ukraine and other neighbouring countries. Russia would be able to build nuclear silos and place its strategic weapons much closer to the European and other former soviet countries.
Read More: Russia-Ukraine war enters its endgame
From no angle, does Ukraine seems to be in a position of negotiation. Surrender seems to be the only option for it. Zelensky and his government will have to finally surrender before Russian forces. They will have to agree to all the terms and conditions or clauses that Moscow includes in the peace treaty. It remains the last resort that Ukraine can go for to put an end to the catastrophe that looms over eastern Europe.
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