Regardless of what Western media feeds you, Russia has overwhelmed the Ukrainian forces. And the Russia-Ukraine war has entered its endgame just within days of Russia’s full-scale invasion into the Eastern European country. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy left with no options has finally agreed to hold talks with Russia which tacitly gives a cue that Kyiv has given up.
Donbas goes to Russia
Let’s face it- Donbas is at the core of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war. The small region located in south-eastern Ukraine comprises two provinces- Luhansk and Donetsk. Both these regions had declared independence from Ukraine after the annexation of Crimea by Russia in 2014. And recently, Russian President Vladimir Putin formally recognised them, which was followed by the ongoing war.
Donbas, a resource-rich region with the largest coal reserves in Ukraine and a wide range of metallurgical industries, was the main geopolitical goal that Moscow was in pursuit of. Ethnic Russians constitute about 40 per cent of the people in Luhansk and Donetsk. The predominant language spoken being Russian gave another case in hand for Putin to annex the Donbas region.
So, as and when the war ends, Russia is certain to keep Donbas under its administration.
Annexation of Snake Island
This is the other big geopolitical goal. Snake Island (Zmiinyi Island), a small border patrol outpost in the Black Sea, has been captured by the Russian Navy. And Putin will not let it go, because-
- It brings Russian military infrastructure right at the gates of NATO, as Moscow will look directly at Moldova, Bulgaria and Romania, from the Snake Island.
- The other part is more important. Snake Island is located just 70 miles south of Odesa. The port of Odesa is one of the few warm-water ports in the region and serves as an important hub for Ukrainian oil and gas exports to Europe and other parts of the world.
Ukraine will never become a part of NATO
The ongoing war started because Putin did not want NATO coming to Russia’s borders. Paying no heed to the Russian concern, Biden kept pushing Ukraine to turn towards the Western world. Putin feels that NATO has expanded way too much with countries like Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia joining the alliance.
Anyhow, Ukraine kept asking NATO to make it a member of the cross-Atlantic alliance. And when Putin had his plates full, he invaded Ukraine. So, any peace deal or any post-war agreement between Moscow and Kyiv will most likely include a guarantee from Ukraine on never joining or even applying for NATO membership.
Zelensky government will be ousted
The West is making a great hero out of Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Nevertheless, Putin loathes him.
Even in the initial phase of the ongoing invasion, Putin even asked the Ukrainian military to take power into its own hands to overthrow the Zelenskyy regime and bring in a new leader who won’t be bidding for the West.
Ukraine’s nuclear boundaries will extend to Belarus
A referendum was held in Belarus on Sunday, during which Belarusians voted to allow the country to host nuclear weapons and Russian troops.
Belarus is a key regional ally for Russia and had also allowed Russian troops to use Belarusian borders for invading Ukraine from the North. Belarus had several Soviet nuclear warheads after the 1991 Soviet collapse. But it had then transferred them to Russia.
Now, with the latest referendum in Belarus, Russia seems to be expanding its nuclear boundaries well beyond its geographical boundaries into Belarus, which neighbours three NATO countries, namely Poland, Latvia and Lithuania.
So, Russia is therefore going to end the Ukraine war on a high where it sees itself emerging as the clear winner, amid raucous opposition from the west.