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Putin’s rivals are planning a coup against him, but he already has his ‘Plan B’ ready

Abhyoday Sisodia by Abhyoday Sisodia
March 15, 2022
in Geopolitics, Russia
Reading Time: 3 mins read
3
putin, coup, russia, ukraine
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According to a few political commentators, Frustration with the Ukraine war’s costs and accumulating economic sanctions might lead to President Putin’s popularity demise. The current scenario plus the popular narrative surrounding it has emboldened some analysts to believe that a successful coup against Putin is a possibility.

A Vox reportage mentioned that, two possible scenarios: a military coup or a popular uprising. Despite all the talk of Putin losing power, neither of these scenarios appears to be realistic in Russia. This is due in large part to Putin’s preparations, which are about as well as any ruler could accomplish. At the same time, experts on authoritarianism and Russian politics aren’t ready to rule out the possibility of Putin’s downfall.

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While there may be increasing speculations running amok, be it a military coup or popular uprising, Putin has prepared plan B for all scenarios.

Military Coup?

Over the last two decades, Russian President Vladimir Putin and his associates have restructured practically every major part of the Russian state with the goal of reducing regime challenges. Putin has detained or executed prominent dissidents, and rendered the country’s ruling class reliant on his goodwill for survival.

As mentioned in the Vox report, Naunihal Singh has tried to figure out what causes coups and what makes them likely to succeed using statistical analysis, game theory, and historical case studies.

Military coups are more likely in low-income countries, regimes that are neither fully democratic nor entirely autocratic, and countries where coups have recently occurred. None of these circumstances apply to modern Russia, a staunchly authoritarian middle-income country that hasn’t had a coup attempt since the early 1990s. Against this backdrop, we can confirm that the Putin show will plod on.

Popular uprising?

A common narrative that is gaining traction is that since the war began, a revolution against Putin has grown more likely. According to some observers, it’s probably more possible than a coup. More public uprisings than coups have occurred in post-Soviet countries such as Georgia, Belarus, and Ukraine in the twenty-first century. Despite this, the best evidence suggests that the chances of one erupting in Russia remain low.

The reality on the ground is that the popularity and support for the Russian President are extremely high. As earlier mentioned by TFIGlobal, in Russia, the average citizen sees the conflict as a war of necessity – one forced onto Russia by NATO and Ukraine. This was confirmed by a poll conducted by the Levada Center, a non-governmental polling firm widely trusted in the West, where more than 66% of Russians blamed the conflict on America, NATO, or Ukraine while only 4% said the conflict was Russia’s fault. Many factors including the stories of social ostracisation that the Russian are facing in the west is only igniting these feelings.

Read more: Putin’s popularity breaks all records during the Russia-Ukraine war

All in all, the Russian Federation is currently becoming a living definition of the “rally around the flag” phenomenon. It takes place when there’s a short-term surge in voter approval as the nation unites behind its leader during a crisis or emergency.

It can be difficult to discuss occurrences with a low probability, such as the collapse of the Putin administration. However, given all the facts in front of us, Putin is well placed politically and has prepared for years on how to deal with a major revolution or a coup if emerged. According to some sources, it has been his greatest concern since the Arab Spring, particularly the Euromaidan upheaval in Ukraine in 2013. So, it is highly unlikely that a prepared Putin would be faced with any significant coup. 

Tags: CoupEuromaidan ProtestRussiaukraine warVladimir PutinVox media
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Comments 3

  1. Avatar W.W.V says:
    2 years ago

    This is an interesting article and also a dangerous synopsis,it is highly unrealistic and more likely to be the fantasy of Western origin than popular Russian belief,a scare story or propaganda.

    Persons that contribute to such whims and distorted thinking are often delusionary and live and work in places like
    Newtown Mount Keneddy, are predominantly agents involved in foreign hostile agencys that regard Socialists or lefist persons as having incurable diseases and have a complete disregard of the basic human right to free speech and political thinking.

    Reply
  2. Avatar ELSDON WARD says:
    2 years ago

    What planet are you on. This is earth

    On earth, we have a regime in a country called Russia who led by one figure has managed to attack and devastate a sovereign nation without any harm to its own infrastructure. (so far). This is outrageous and shows how it is possible to subjugate and murder people on some arrogant unjustifyable whim. Possibly this mass delusion inflicted upon the Russian people was accomplished in a similar fashion.

    It is a joy to see the old soviet guns and tanks turned to scrap, but a grief to witness the loss of life on both sides. Clearly life is short, Russia is losing its economy and young lives and sooner or later the probability is that Putin will be erased. After all, seven generals down who is willing to be next?.
    You do not have to be a right wing tory to form a Democracy. Democratic Socialism will succeed because it caters for human reghts and builds economies where people are free and productive. It is so paintul to watch this unfold in the mean time but in the end Russia will have to pay to restore Ukraine and not as part of an old Soviet regime.

    Reply
  3. Avatar Answer Mann says:
    1 year ago

    It’s is a lie a coup couldn’t happen in Russia. After all a successful coup was planned and executed by the democrat party with their co-conspiritors in the CCP.
    Intentional release of COVID to have an excuse to Rigg the U.S. presidential election against Trump. In addition to the Clinton/Obama corruption of U.S. institutions including the DOJ. No wonder the democrats are so arrogant and crooked!
    God, please help save America for our children from these EVIL perverted demonic Democrats!

    Reply

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