Balancing is at the core of the realist approach to the behavior of states in international relations. However, not every nation can balance its interests skillfully. Algeria is an example of how poor balancing can spell doom for a country’s geopolitical ambitions. Let me explain.
Russia just exposed Algeria
Recently, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov revealed that his country and Algeria held military maneuvers in Béchar in November last year. Speaking about bilateral relations between the two nations, Lavrov confirmed the maneuvers, which were dubbed ‘Desert Shield’. He also announced that the two countries will hold military exercises from 16-28 November 2023, also in Béchar, near the Algerian-Moroccan border.
However, Lavrov’s statements contradict the Algerian Defence Ministry’s statement of 28 November 2022 released by state media in which the Algerian authorities assured that such military exercises would not take place. So, why did the Algerian minister lie? There is a mono-causal explanation for this- to shield itself from Western attacks for allying with Russia.
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Notwithstanding the conflict in Ukraine, Algeria continues to be Russia’s principal regional ally. Algiers has been under pressure from Western nations to cut ties with Moscow, and the US has even called for penalties against Tebboune’s administration by CAATSA (the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act).
Taking a duplicitous approach, Algiers did not want to jeopardize its relationships with the West, its primary energy client, by insinuating that the Algerian-Russian drills would be canceled. Since Russia invaded Ukraine, Algeria has gained attention as a possible energy partner for European nations looking to lessen their reliance on Russian gas. However, it is very likely that, like Moscow, Algeria will use gas as a political weapon.
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Experts believe that this situation confirms, once again, “the dilemma Algeria is facing”. Tebboune is trying to strengthen relations with the West in sectors such as energy while keeping its strategic and historical relations with Russia intact. However, Algeria’s balance continues to tilt more towards Moscow within this complicated balance.
Despite warnings to Algiers, Algeria’s policymakers remain determined to serve Russia’s interests by offering it strategic access to the western Mediterranean. As we have previously explained, Algeria has increased its defense budget to $23 billion, including $17 billion planned as part of arms procurement from Russia. Algeria is already among the top three buyers of Russian arms behind China and India, with procurements worth 7 billion dollars in 2021.
Lavrov’s interview took place a few days after the visit to Paris by the Algerian army chief of staff,General Said Chengriha. His statements can, therefore, be interpreted as a message to the West about the unchanging nature of Russian-Algerian ties and the relevant cooperation between the two countries.
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After Chengriha’s visit, President Tebboune is scheduled to visit France in May and Moscow as well. Analysts predict that “Algeria will falsely present itself as a non-aligned country and place itself equidistant between the belligerent powers”, analysts predict.
Algeria needs to understand that balancing is not a game for novice geopolitical players. While other countries, like India, are adept at balancing their national interests through complex maneuvers, Algeria still lacks the geopolitical know-how for such a sophisticated game of power. If it continues down this path, it might eventually lose the backing of its powerful ally, Russia.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fCtDoZbGmSc