Remember what led to the demise of Liberal elites in Italy? The snap elections. Something similar is about to happen in Spain. The current Prime Minister, Pedro Sanchez, has confronted the bleak prospect of a potential landslide win by right and far-right forces. Sanchez has chosen to make a tactical move. Calling snap elections to rebuild the left and avoiding a total collapse.
The Looming Threat: Snap Elections in Spain
The municipal and regional elections last Sunday acted as a significant wake-up call for Spain’s Socialist Party (PSOE/S&D). the progressive formation has lost eight regional governments to the PP and many city councils. Meanwhile, VOX, Spain’s third-largest political force, has played a critical role in forging coalition governments with the PP in various Spanish areas.
Sanchez, sensing the impending demise, has finally decided to call hasty elections. This manoeuvre, however, will not be enough to save him and his party. Pedro Sanchez’s approval rating has plunged, according to Morning Consult, and is now at 34%. The Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party, often known as PSOE, is only supported by 25% of voters. Rising populist unrest, fueled by spiking inflation and the rising cost of living, has exacerbated Sanchez’s problems. He is now aware of the impending prospect of conservatives seizing power in Madrid.
The rise of populism, particularly from Spain’s new conservative party, Vox, complicates Sanchez’s situation. Vox has risen to become the country’s third political force, with public support growing.
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Sánchez now knows that if he does not take the initiative and let more time pass, a victory of a right-wing alliance could wipe out all traces of “Sanchismo”, the political legacy of the prime minister and his progressive government.
A Parallel with Italy
Now let’s draw a parallel with Italy. Since 2008, Italy, like Spain, has had left-wing governments in power. This, however, took a heavy toll on the Italian economy, with the debt-to-GDP ratio rising. As a result, the EU was forced to dispatch its top diplomat, Mario Draghi, to take command of the situation. Unfortunately, Draghi’s efforts were in vain.
The Italian people were sick of liberal ideologues, prompting a sudden election in September 2022. Italians elected a majority conservative government led by Giorgia Meloni for the first time. Meloni has emerged as the EU’s most formidable adversary. Similar patterns are emerging from Madrid, indicating that Spain is on the verge of becoming an Italian Redux 2.0.
The possibility of an Italian Redux 2.0 in Spain has sounded alarm bells throughout the European Union. The EU is concerned that if conservative forces win power in Spain, their agenda will be severely impeded.
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The decision by Pedro Sanchez to seek early elections in Spain underscores the bleak chances he has if he continues on his current path. The PSOE’s losses in previous regional and municipal elections, combined with Sanchez’s decreasing approval ratings, motivated this strategic approach. However, it is unclear whether this approach will preserve the left from total collapse. As conservatives gain traction in Spain, drawing comparisons with Italy’s recent political change, it appears that Spain is on the verge of an Italian Redux 2.0. The consequences of such a shift are enormous not only for Spain, but also for the European Union, which is anticipating future threats to its agenda.
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