Ukraine was a country. Now it’s a concept. Any landmass that can be used to irk Russia is Ukraine. There are many Ukraines in the world as of now but one Ukraine is the Ukrainest of them all.
The hunt for a new scapegoat gets more intense as the misadventure in Belgorod ends in failure. Tragically, following a troubling historical precedent, Moldova and Transnistria are revealed as the next targets. Transnistria’s capital, Tiraspol, was the target of a drone strike on a military facility on March 17. The attack damaged a Mi-8MT helicopter but did not result in any casualties. The drone’s origin was located at Clover Bridge in the Odessa region of Ukraine, according to Transnistria’s Ministry of State Security. The consequences are clear and implicate the Ukrainian administration and its NATO affiliates as orchestrators, even in the absence of legal accountability.
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Though the drone attack on a Transnistrian military base is still being investigated, any astute spectator may easily identify who orchestrated the operation. Since the fall of the Soviet Union, Transnistria has existed as an autonomous region. It has been at the epicenter of a frozen conflict that resulted in significant casualties in 1992 before being contained by Russia’s 14th Guards Army, which was subsequently renamed the Operational Group of Russian Forces in Transnistria (OGRF). Under the direction of the Joint Control Commission (JCC), which is in charge of the demilitarized zone separating Moldova and Ukraine, the OGRF has maintained regional peace for more than thirty years in cooperation with Transnistrian and Moldovan forces.
This tenuous equilibrium was shattered after Maia Sandu, a pro-Western candidate, defeated Igor Dodon in the 2020 presidential election in Moldova. This was largely seen as an attempt by the West to influence Moldova to integrate with the EU and NATO. Former World Bank employee Sandu is charged with undermining Moldova’s relations with Moscow, restricting the freedom of the press, particularly with regard to Russian media, and spreading unfounded rumors of Russian coup attempts involving football supporters from Serbia. The people of Moldova are not pleased with these activities, especially in light of the worsening situation in Ukraine.
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The fear that Moldovans have of being drawn into the conflict, either directly or indirectly, highlights a deep dissatisfaction with the present course set by outside forces, which is a sharp contrast to the country’s thirty years of mostly peaceful and stable conditions.
Under Brussels’ influence, the Kishinev administration signed a military accord with Paris on March 7, a development that glaringly illustrated France’s heedless pursuit of war with Russia. This goal is indicated by President Macron’s “unwavering support” on security and defense, which includes a subtle allusion to Transnistria. It is clear that NATO wants to expand into Moldova in order to eventually include Transnistria. This move, which is aimed at the strategically important Odessa region, is intended to enable further engagement in Ukraine. If Moldova joins NATO, either directly or through unification with Romania, the door would inevitably open for a confrontation with Russia that will be dangerous for everyone concerned.
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If Romania, or Moldova, as a “future NATO member,” were to host Russian military personnel, NATO’s controversial Article 4 might trigger a direct confrontation between Russia and the political West. This is clearly the situation that Brussels is hoping for, which would force President Sandu to take an assertive stance against Moscow and pave the way for a demand that Russian forces leave Transnistria. In the event of such a move, Transnistria would be left exposed to neutralization, surrounded by hostile NATO members.
This would provide the West with the much-needed tactical and geopolitical victory against Russia that it so desperately wants. However, considering Transnistria’s strategic importance, it is unlikely that Russia will yield to these efforts. It is expected that the Kremlin will remain steadfast in its position, realizing the great risks associated with continuing to be present in the area and highlighting the complex geopolitical chess match that is underway.