The geographical positioning at the crossroads of Asia, Europe, and Africa, as well as the abundance of natural resources in the form of oil and gas in West Asia, have always attracted great powers to the region. Following the same trend, China, a new great power in world politics, has become one of the primary players in West Asia through trade and diplomacy. This shows a historic change in West Asian geopolitics. China has successfully mediated between Saudi Arabia and Iran, a geopolitical and regional rival of West Asia, highlighting the growing influence of the dragon. After passing almost a year of the signing of the historic reconciliation agreement, the deepening Saudi-Iranian rapport stands as China’s most significant diplomatic achievement in the region, demonstrating Beijing’s capacity to reshape long-standing rivalries into productive partnerships.
The Dragon’s Diplomatic Dance
The transformation in Saudi-Iranian relations has been remarkable. Recent developments, where Saudi netizens threaten Israel against striking Iran and condemn actions in Gaza, prove a structural change in regional politics. In Arab-Islamic summit, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) reaffirmed Riyadh’s position on the Palestinian people and condemned Israeli actions considered impediments to peace efforts. He criticized violence against Palestinians, including attacks on Al-Aqsa Mosque and undermining the Palestinian Authority. He accused Israel of perpetrating “collective genocide” in Gaza, delivering some of his harshest criticism of the country since the war started last year. Saudi Arabia and Iran have also deepened their relations by exploring regional matters and conducting joint military exercises to enhance cooperation. These steps indicate a major shift in West Asia’s diplomacy where Saudi Arabia and Iran are collaborating to resolve regional conflicts, as evident in the situation prevailing in Gaza, Yemen, and Syria. Such a public show of solidarity would not have been thinkable a few years ago, reflecting the success of Chinese mediation. The explanation by the Chinese Foreign Ministry’s spokesperson, Lin Jian, of “constructive interactions at various levels” between Saudi Arabia and Iran is the most recent example underscoring Beijing’s status as the region’s emerging diplomatic powerhouse.
Gaza, Trump, and the Abraham Accords: Saudi Arabia’s Triple Squeeze
This potential diplomatic victory coincides with the expansion of China’s financial reach in the region. Beijing has just announced a US$2 billion dollar-denominated bond issuance in Riyadh, indicating the deep intertwining of economic and diplomatic moves. The bond issuance would probably sound purely financial, especially considering that China could borrow cheaper at home; it is actually a fully considered step in making bilateral ties strong and opening new avenues for international cooperation. These developments hold a particularly strategic timing as Saudi Arabia comes under increasing pressure on its relations with Israel due to the crisis in Gaza. Domestically, public opinion is profoundly hostile to normalization with Israel, building momentum; however, there may be external pressure from an eventual future Trump administration that could spur Saudi Arabia into becoming part of the Abraham Accords. The tension in this situation presents a natural space that China comfortably occupies by offering partnership without insisting upon provocative political allegiances. The prospect of Donald Trump’s return to the White House adds another layer of complexity to this evolving situation. Trump is expected to push Saudi Arabia aggressively to join the Abraham Accords, which could strain Riyadh-Washington relations at a time when Saudi public sentiment is particularly hostile to such moves. Saudi Arabia, under the leadership of MBS, looks desperate to open its orthodox society and bring businesses and investments in order todiversify its economic dependency on oil. For that, Riyadh needs help from economic powerhouses such as the US or China. Any pressure from the Trump administration may push Riyadh into China’s lap in order to fulfil its future economic aspirations, knowing Chinese economic capabilities. This potential friction provides China with an unprecedented opportunity to further cement its position as a more reliable and understanding partner.
Economy and Non-interference: Dragon’s Diplomatic Tools
China’s regional diplomacy is also quite different from the American model. While Washington has traditionally used military presence and guarantees of security as a means to keep its influence, often attaching political conditions to relationships, the non-interference policy of Beijing and mutual economic benefits are music to the ears of regional leaders. The Belt and Road Initiative is the economic back of China’s regional strategy through massive infrastructure investment, creating interdependence far beyond any one trade relationship. Chinese-built ports, railways, and digital infrastructure are literally reshaping the economic geography of the region. According to the China Global Investment Tracker, till 2023, China has invested overall 242.76 billion dollars in all West Asian Countries, which is a hugeamount of money in a small region like West Asia. The recent bond issuance in Riyadh further cements these ties, creating new financial links that parallel the physical infrastructure connections. The economic investment and successful Saudi-Iran reconciliation demonstrate the effectiveness of this approach, showing how economic interdependence and diplomatic respect can achieve what decades of American pressure (Militarly) could not.
However, China’s growing power is tied to certain limits: the continued use of the US dollar in large financial transactions, such as the recent issue in bonds recently confirmed, features the sustained might of the order currently established in finance. Also, the presence of the US army in the region and the security guarantee that they hold for many Arab states remains very precious. Nevertheless, so far, China’s slow, integrative approach seems to pay off.Successful mediation between Saudi Arabia and Iran has defined Beijing as a trusted, neutral party ready to bridge deep regional divides. Diplomatic success, coupled with deepening financial ties and infrastructure investments, signifies that the influence of China in West Asia will continue growing.
Conclusion
The future of regional politics likely lies in a more balanced approach, with Arab states maintaining security relationships with Washington while deepening economic and diplomatic ties with Beijing. However, if current trends continue – particularly if domestic pressure within Saudi Arabia regarding Gaza and potential tensions over the Abraham Accords under Trump’s presidency may strain Saudi-US relations – China’s patient, pragmatic approach to regional engagement may ultimately prove more sustainable than America’s traditional alliance system.
