The era of deep economic, security, and military cooperation between Canada and the U. S. looks over. That much became clear when Prime Minister Mark Carney made his stark remark following Donald Trump’s announcement of a steep 25 percent tariff on auto imports. Previously, Chrystia Freeland, former deputy prime minister under Trudeau, suggested forming a closer alliance with Britain and France as the NATO nations possess nuclear weapons. Canadians have also hinted at joining the EU recently, which has been rejected by Paula Pinho, spokesperson for European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.
On which, Trump retaliated by warning the European Union against working with Canada and said the world’s largest economy may put tariffs larger than what’s currently planned.
For decades, Canada and the U.S. shared an almost seamless economic and security partnership bolstered by agreements like NAFTA and USMCA. Yet Trump’s recent threats have shattered any illusion of economic cooperation. Carney, suspending his campaign before the April 28 election, summoned an emergency cabinet meeting in Ottawa. During the meeting, he described the tariffs as “unjustified”. He also added that Trump had irrevocably changed relations, and despite any future negotiations, there would be “no turning back”.
Carney explained that Canada would respond with retaliation. “Our response to these newest tariffs is to fight, to protect, to build,” he asserted. Ottawa committed to putting into place retaliatory trade measures meant to cause the maximum amount of harm to the U.S. economy while preserving Canadian interests. However, it emerged clearly that the trade war alone would not be Canada’s singular response. The more profound change was in motion—a change that required retooling the country’s alliances and recalibrating its geopolitical stance.
Canada Eyes the European Union
As Trump doubled down on his economic war, he also issued a stark warning to Europe: do not align with Canada against the U.S. In a Truth Social post, Trump stated that if the EU and Canada were to cooperate in a way that harmed the U.S. economy, Washington would impose “large-scale tariffs, far larger than currently planned” on both.
Despite this warning, Canada has been accelerating its pivot toward Europe. Prime Minister Carney recently said that his government would maintain tariffs on U.S. goods until the U.S. reaffirmed its commitment to fair trade. At the same time, diplomatic and defence discussions with the European Union have increased. It reflects Canada’s increasing desire to join the European bloc.
Previously, an unexpected event came when Chrystia Freeland, a leading candidate in the Liberal Party’s leadership race, suggested that Canada should seek stronger security ties with Britain and France to have a nuclear umbrella of these two NATO countries. Freeland said Trump’s threat to annexe Canada and repeated insult of Canadian sovereignty is an existential threat, and Canada should seek alternate options in Europe.
Europe’s Nuclear Umbrella
Freeland’s proposal to align more closely with France and Britain was an implicit acknowledgement of the need for nuclear deterrence. “At a time when the U.S. can pose a threat,” she said, Canada should be looking toward partners with credible strategic weapons. The message was unmistakable—Canada, once firmly nestled under the U.S. security umbrella, now sought shelter within Europe’s nuclear deterrent framework.
Canada’s Warming Sentiment Toward the EU
It looks the Public opinion in Canada is shifting in line with these strategic recalibrations. A recent Abacus Data poll found that 44 percent of Canadians believe their country should join the EU, with an even higher percentage holding a favourable view of the bloc. This increasing sentiment shows a greater realignment. Canadians have started seeing the EU, not the U.S., as their trusted partner.
European leaders have welcomed and appreciated this growing pro-EU sentiment in Canada. Paula Pinho, a spokesperson for the European Commission, noted the poll results as a testament to the EU success. However, she also said that the geographical location of Canada did not allow a formal EU membership possible, according to Article 49 of the EU. Despite this, if Canada and the EU are trying to cooperate, it means they know their interests are converging or they are just using the pressure tactic on Trump.
The most obvious indication of Canada’s turning towards Europe is its desire to join the EU’s new defence program, as Europe wants to strengthen its own defence to decrease dependence on the U.S.
The defence cooperation have the possibility of Canada’s participation in the production of European fighter planes and other defence systems. This would be an alternative to the U.S.-dominated arms market, cutting dependence on American-made equipment such as the Lockheed Martin F-35. For Canada.. instead of automatically turning to Washington for military hardware, it is seeking European alternatives.
Carney reinforced this pivot during his first overseas trip as Prime Minister, visiting London and Paris and describing Canada as “the most European of non-European countries.” His words underscored a broader trend—Ottawa’s deepening integration with Europe as a counterbalance to its deteriorating ties with the U.S.
Trump’s Retaliation
Canada’s increasing proximity to the EU has not escaped Trump’s attention. The Trump administration has warned that any concerted action by Brussels and Ottawa against Washington would unleash draconian economic measures. With Trump being the kind of leader who is difficult to anticipate, there is also the threat on the horizon of further measures, such as higher tariffs or even the threat of undermining NATO’s collective defence commitment towards Canada.
Still, Canada seems set on making its own way. However, these changes look short-term as it is really difficult for Canada or Europe to defy Trump’s warning. Canada might bend to Trump’s demands in the coming months the way it did previously. The new Canadian PM, Carney, is looking to secure a big win for his party but has lost popularity by creating nationalist sentiments labelling Trump as a villain in the eyes of Canadians. However, after the elections, Canadian leadership have to look to the U.S. for economic and military cooperation.
After Trump’s warning, for Canada, there is no option left to look across the Atlantic rather look south. For Europe, it’s difficult because they don’t know where to look and where to go. After all, their dependency for seven decades has left them with no experience on how to manage without the US.
