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Macron “STRATEGIC AUTONOMY” Shift from US: Will France’s Recognition of Palestine Spark Domino Effect in UK, Italy, Germany, and entire Europe? Full Analysis 

Smriti Singh by Smriti Singh
July 28, 2025
in Geopolitics
Macron’s Strategic Autonomy Push: France Breaks with U.S. to Recognize Palestine

Macron’s Strategic Autonomy Push: France Breaks with U.S. to Recognize Palestine

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In a move that has shifted the diplomatic landscape in the Middle East, French President Emmanuel Macron announced that France will officially recognize Palestine as a state, positioning the country as the most powerful Western nation to do so. The decision, which Macron says will be formalized during the United Nations General Assembly in September, has drawn both praise and sharp criticism across the globe.

France’s recognition is more than a symbolic gesture. It comes amid a deepening humanitarian crisis in Gaza, increasing regional instability, and growing global frustration with the slow progress toward a two-state solution.

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Historic Shifts in French Policy Toward Israel and Palestine

France’s relationship with Israel dates back to the post-World War II era, when it was one of the first Western powers to support the creation of the Israeli state. During the 1956 Suez Crisis, France even joined forces with Israel and the United Kingdom against Egypt in a joint military operation. At the time, France viewed Israel as a strategic partner, especially as it faced anti-colonial revolts in North Africa, most notably in Algeria, then a French colony.

France feared that pan-Arab solidarity — especially support from Gulf countries — could strengthen Algeria’s independence movement. Aligning with Israel served as a counterbalance to this threat.

But this dynamic shifted when Charles de Gaulle returned to power in 1958. De Gaulle viewed Israel as increasingly militaristic and expansionist, and he sought to rebalance French foreign policy in favor of Arab nations, many of which were vital to France’s energy and security interests, particularly in Syria and the Gulf. This pivot was a turning point that laid the foundation for France’s more neutral, and at times critical, stance toward Israeli actions.

Strategic Autonomy in a Post-AUKUS Era

President Macron’s announcement reflects a broader vision of strategic autonomy — an effort to carve out an independent global role for France and, by extension, the European Union.

In recent years, France’s trust in traditional allies like the United States and the United Kingdom has eroded, especially after the AUKUS defense pact in 2021. That deal, in which Australia abandoned a multibillion-dollar submarine contract with France in favor of U.S. and U.K. alternatives, was a diplomatic blow to Paris. It sparked calls within the French government to assert European — and especially French — independence in foreign affairs.

By recognizing Palestine, France is signaling that it will not merely follow Washington’s lead. It wants to be a leader, not just a participant, in global diplomacy.

A Humanitarian Catalyst: The Gaza Crisis

The decision also comes amid global concern over the humanitarian catastrophe unfolding in Gaza.

Since the Hamas-led attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, and Israel’s subsequent military response, thousands of civilians have died, and many more are struggling to access food, water, and medical aid. France has been vocal in condemning the humanitarian toll, with Macron warning that continued violence risks regional spillover and radicalization.

“The urgent thing today is that the war in Gaza stops and the civilian population is saved,” Macron said in a post on X (formerly Twitter). “Peace is possible.”

Palestinian Division and the Question of Representation

France’s move supports the Palestinian Authority (PA), led by President Mahmoud Abbas, which exercises limited autonomy in parts of the West Bank. However, the Palestinian territories are deeply fragmented.

While the PA governs parts of the West Bank, Hamas controls Gaza and has long opposed any two-state solution that includes the existence of Israel. Meanwhile, Area C — over 60% of the West Bank — remains under full Israeli control, including expanding settlements considered illegal under international law.

This internal division raises a critical question: Whom does France recognize? Macron’s support is clearly for the PA, but with Iran backing Hamas and Israel refusing to engage with either faction diplomatically, the road to peace appears increasingly complex.

Reactions from Around the World

Israel:
Israel responded strongly. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu condemned Macron’s decision, calling it a “reward for terrorism.”

“A Palestinian state in these conditions would be a launch pad to annihilate Israel — not to live in peace beside it,” Netanyahu said.

Palestinian Authority:
The PA welcomed the move. A letter was delivered to President Abbas confirming France’s recognition.

“This position reflects France’s commitment to international law and its support for the Palestinian people’s rights to self-determination,” said Hussein Al Sheikh, Vice President of the PLO.

United States:
The Biden administration — and now Secretary of State Marco Rubio — rejected France’s recognition.

“This reckless decision only serves Hamas propaganda and sets back peace,” Rubio wrote on social media.

European Divisions: Will Others Follow?

France’s announcement has intensified debate across Europe.

In the United Kingdom, over 220 MPs have urged Prime Minister Keir Starmer to recognize Palestine. While Starmer affirms that Palestinian statehood is an “inalienable right,” he has stopped short of committing to a timeline.

Germany, on the other hand, remains firmly aligned with Israel and has made it clear it will not recognize Palestine at this stage, citing concerns about Israeli security.

Italy is also cautious, preferring to focus on diplomatic negotiations rather than unilateral decisions.

Legal Implications: From Symbolism to Sanctions?

France’s recognition could have legal and diplomatic consequences. As a permanent member of the UN Security Council, France holds influence over resolutions and international legal forums.

If Palestine gains wider recognition as a sovereign state, future Israeli military actions in Gaza or the West Bank could potentially be challenged at the International Criminal Court (ICC) or the International Court of Justice (ICJ).

Such a move could open a new chapter in international accountability, forcing Israel to navigate not just military threats, but legal and diplomatic ones as well.

Symbolic Gesture or Game-Changer?

France’s recognition of Palestine is a strategic gamble — a diplomatic effort to assert independence, address a humanitarian crisis, and reposition itself as a global leader in peace efforts.

Whether this act leads to meaningful progress toward a two-state solution, triggers a domino effect in Europe, or sparks further tensions remains to be seen.

But one thing is clear: France has stepped off the sidelines and into the heart of one of the world’s most enduring and explosive conflicts — and the world is watching.

 

Tags: Anti-Israel ProtestsEuropeFranceGazaIsrael-PalestineUSA
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Smriti Singh

Smriti Singh

Endlessly curious about how power moves across maps and minds

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