Since the onset of the Ukraine war, Azerbaijan has maintained a cautious stance. Officially, Baku has refrained from supplying lethal military aid to Kyiv, focusing instead on humanitarian assistance exceeding $40 million—ranging from financial contributions to infrastructural and energy equipment support. Azerbaijani authorities have emphasized respect for territorial integrity principles, reflecting their own sensitive geopolitical context linked to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
However, prior to Russia’s full-scale invasion, Azerbaijan had provided Ukraine with some military equipment, including drones and armored vehicles, indicating a precedent for military cooperation under different circumstances. Now Azerbaijan may consider lifting its arms embargo on supplies to Kyiv if the Russian regime continues strikes against Ukrainian gas infrastructure or targets facilities of Azerbaijani companies in Ukraine.
It is said that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev discussed Russian attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure during a call on August 10. They specifically addressed the Russian strike on the SOCAR oil depot and the attacks deeply angered both leaders.
The Consideration to Lift the Arms Transfer Ban
Zelensky called the attacks an attempt by Moscow to block energy routes that guarantee energy independence for Ukraine and its European partners. The leaders of both countries emphasized that this “under no circumstances will lead” to a halt in their cooperation in the energy sector. Russian forces launched five Shahed-type kamikaze drones at the SOCAR oil depot in the Odessa region on the night of August 7-8. The strike caused a fire and damaged a diesel pipeline; four company employees suffered serious injuries.
This was the second attack in a week on energy facilities linked to the Caucasian republic in the Odessa region — on the night of August 6, Russian forces attacked the Orlovka compressor station in the village of Novoselske, through which Azerbaijani gas has been supplied to Ukraine via the Trans-Balkan pipeline since June 28. The Ministry of Energy specified that the station was deliberately targeted by “dozens of drones,” partly to damage Kyiv’s trade relations with Baku and other partners.
Azerbaijan began supplying gas to Ukraine based on an agreement between SOCAR and Naftogaz. Kyiv noted at the time that although the volumes were small, they held “strategic significance.”
Recent media reports close to Aliyev’s administration suggest that if Russian strikes on Azerbaijani-linked Ukrainian energy infrastructure continue, Azerbaijan could reconsider its current ban on supplying weapons to Ukraine. This would represent a significant policy shift motivated by direct damage to Azerbaijani interests and a response to perceived Russian aggression.
Such a decision would not only represent support for Ukraine’s defense but also a strategic signaling to Moscow. Azerbaijan’s move could complicate Moscow’s calculus, adding another layer to the multifront pressure on Russia and potentially increasing military assistance flows to Ukraine beyond Western-led efforts.
Geopolitical Implications
Azerbaijan’s potential lifting of its arms embargo on Ukraine reflects several deeper geopolitical currents:
Energy Security Linkage: Azerbaijan’s energy shipments to Ukraine are critical to Kyiv’s and Europe’s energy diversification and independence from Russia. Russian strikes threaten these vital lifelines, motivating Azerbaijan to protect its energy interests more assertively.
Regional Balancing: Azerbaijan is navigating a delicate regional balance, maintaining neighborly relations with Russia while supporting Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. The strikes test this balance, potentially pushing Baku closer to Kyiv in military terms.
Impact on the Russia-Ukraine Conflict: Introducing Azerbaijani weapons to the Ukrainian military arsenal could alter tactical dynamics, especially if the supplied equipment aligns with Ukraine’s defense needs and compatibility with other international aid.
Diplomatic Messaging: By conditioning arms supply on the continuation of Russian strikes, Azerbaijan sends a warning to Russia that attacks on its assets provoke tangible consequences, possibly deterring further targeting of its linked facilities.
The ongoing Russian strikes on energy infrastructure connected to Azerbaijan in Ukraine have brought a new dimension to Azerbaijani foreign policy calculations. While traditionally hesitant to supply arms during the conflict, these provocations may prompt Baku to reconsider, potentially easing its ban on military transfers to Kyiv. Such a move would underscore the stakes involved for regional actors caught between superpower rivalries and local security concerns, illustrating the unpredictable and intertwined nature of the Ukraine war’s wider geopolitical landscape.
This analysis incorporates information from Azerbaijani media reports, statements from involved presidents, and regional security assessments to provide a comprehensive view of the evolving situation.
