The world woke up to a geopolitical shockwave on October 9th, 2025, when Pakistan bombed Afghanistan in what Islamabad called “anti-terror operations.” Fighter jets, likely F-16s, tore through Afghan skies, striking Kabul and Paktika province and killing dozens. Pakistan claimed it was targeting Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) hideouts. But the timing — and silence that followed — suggested this was not just another border operation.
Because on that very same day, Taliban Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi was in New Delhi, meeting Indian officials to strengthen diplomatic ties. Meanwhile, across the ocean, Donald Trump was pushing forward his plan to reclaim Bagram Airbase, America’s once-dominant fortress in Afghanistan.
Coincidence? Hardly. What unfolded was a calculated chain reaction — one that connects Washington, Islamabad, Kabul, Beijing, and Moscow in a dangerous new contest for control of Eurasia.
Pakistan’s Strikes: More Than “Counterterrorism”
Officially, Islamabad said its strikes were aimed at TTP terrorists operating inside Afghanistan. But global analysts saw something deeper.
These were the most aggressive Pakistani airstrikes on Afghan soil since the Taliban took power in 2021, a direct violation of Afghan sovereignty.
And yet, Washington remained silent. No condemnation. No calls for restraint. Instead, leaks from intelligence insiders hint that the U.S. might have quietly provided satellite data to Pakistan for target precision.
Why would the U.S. back Pakistan — especially after years of tension? Because this time, Pakistan’s move aligned perfectly with Washington’s strategic pivot toward reasserting control in the region.
Just days earlier, the U.S. approved $3 billion in fresh military aid to Pakistan under Trump’s new “regional stability” framework. For many, this was the green signal Islamabad needed.
As one South Asian diplomat remarked, “Pakistan can’t move a muscle without U.S. permission.”
Trump’s Obsession with Bagram: The Return of the Eagle
Since his return to the White House in January 2025, Donald Trump has been open about his goal: reclaim Bagram Airbase.
Not for nostalgia — but for strategy.
Located just 40 miles north of Kabul, Bagram is one of the most strategically important military bases on Earth. It overlooks China’s Xinjiang, borders Iran, sits near Central Asia, and keeps India within operational range.
Trump has repeatedly called it “the greatest geopolitical asset America ever abandoned.”
For the U.S., regaining Bagram means more than military presence — it’s about reestablishing surveillance reach over China, Iran, Russia, and even India’s regional maneuvers.
Critics warn this could reignite the Afghan war, but Trump’s Pentagon sees it as a linchpin of the Indo-Pacific containment strategy — part of a larger pivot away from Europe and the Middle East.
The Taliban, however, have vowed that no foreign power will ever again occupy Afghan soil. Their spokesman declared: “Bagram is Afghan soil. No foreign boots again.”
But Pakistan’s strikes might have just weakened Taliban resistance — giving Washington a chance to negotiate a new deal through force or fear.
The India-Taliban Connection: Pakistan’s Nightmare
The timing of the bombings was no accident.
During Muttaqi’s six-day visit to New Delhi, India offered to restore its embassy in Kabul and expand humanitarian and infrastructure projects — a significant diplomatic step.
For Pakistan’s generals, this was an existential red alert. The Taliban, once their proxy, were now cozying up to their arch-rival India.
By striking Afghanistan during those meetings, Pakistan sent two messages:
To Kabul — “Stay in line.”
To New Delhi — “We still call the shots in your backyard.”
But the reality is harsher: Pakistan’s “regional muscle” only flexes when Washington nods. The attack’s timing — alongside U.S. silence — shows Islamabad’s action likely served Trump’s broader strategic interest more than its own.
The Moscow Format: Unity or Illusion?
Just a day before the bombings, Pakistan joined China, Russia, Iran, India, and Central Asian nations in signing a “Moscow Format Declaration”, rejecting any foreign military base in Afghanistan.
It was supposed to be a show of unity — an anti-U.S. front.
But Pakistan’s actions the next day shattered that illusion.
Now, even Beijing and Tehran are uneasy. China opposes a U.S. return because Bagram directly overlooks Xinjiang and the CPEC corridor. Iran fears American drones monitoring its nuclear facilities.
India, which reluctantly signed the declaration, wanted to limit China’s influence — not necessarily America’s.
Pakistan’s betrayal has left the “Moscow bloc” fractured, exposing deep distrust between members. The Taliban have already summoned Pakistan’s envoy and threatened retaliation, signaling a dangerous new rift.
The Great Pivot: From Gaza and Ukraine to Asia
As Washington’s wars in Gaza and Ukraine wind down, Trump’s administration is redeploying focus — and money — eastward.
A new $100 billion Indo-Pacific redirection plan is shifting U.S. military and intelligence resources to Guam, Japan, the Philippines, and potentially, Bagram.
This is the real “America First” strategy — securing dominance in Asia before China consolidates its Eurasian sphere.
Economic Front: Rare Earths and Resource Wars
On the same day as the airstrikes, China banned exports of 12 rare-earth elements vital for electric vehicles, semiconductors, and missile systems.
Beijing controls over 90% of global rare-earth refining, giving it enormous leverage over the U.S. tech and defense industries.
Where can Washington find alternatives?
Afghanistan.
Under Bagram’s shadow lies nearly $1 trillion worth of untapped mineral reserves — including lithium, cobalt, copper, and rare earths.
Reestablishing control over Bagram would allow the U.S. to access and secure these resources — potentially undermining China’s global monopoly.
This isn’t just a military chess game anymore; it’s an economic survival war.
Pakistan’s Balancing Act: Two Masters, One Trap
Pakistan’s dilemma has never been clearer.
It owes its infrastructure to China’s CPEC, and its army’s survival to U.S. funding.
By bombing Afghanistan, Islamabad appears to have chosen a side — or at least pretended to. But this balancing act between Beijing and Washington can’t last.
If Trump pushes too hard for Bagram, Pakistan will face fury from both the Taliban and China, its two most dangerous neighbors.
Islamabad’s silence on U.S. ambitions reveals its fear — it wants to stay useful to everyone, yet loyal to no one. But history shows Pakistan rarely escapes Washington’s orbit for long.
The Final Reckoning: The Battle for Eurasia
Bagram is no longer just an airbase — it’s the centerpiece of the new Great Game.
For Trump, it’s America’s “eye on China.”
For China, it’s a red line.
For Pakistan, it’s a tightrope.
For the Taliban, it’s sovereignty itself.
With Gaza cooling, Ukraine fading, and Asia heating, the world is once again watching Afghanistan’s mountains.
Because if the U.S. flag flies over Bagram again, the next Cold War won’t begin in the Pacific — it’ll start in the Hindu Kush.
Pakistan’s airstrikes were not just explosions in the night.
They were a signal — the first move in a new shadow war over who controls the future of Eurasia.
And as history shows, when Afghanistan becomes the battlefield, the whole world feels the tremor.
