The world came close to seeing unprecedented bloodshed quite recently during the Nagorno-Karabakh skirmishes. Turkey was backing up a Turkic Muslim Azerbaijan, whereas Moscow was expected to come to Armenia’s rescue if need be. However, Russia didn’t engage itself physically and the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict did not spiral into major bloodshed between Russia and Turkey-backed mercenaries.
But whatever happened in the South Caucasus region is about to open up a Pandora’s box, and perhaps even throw Russia and Turkey into a wider conflict. After helping a Turkic Azerbaijan overpower Armenia, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan seems to be moving towards his ambitions of playing up Turkic chauvinism in former Soviet spaces like Central Asia and Moldova. Russia and Turkey are thus bracing up for an identity battle in the former Soviet States.
To be precise, Turkey’s interference in the violent exchanges between Armenia and Azerbaijan was itself a part of Erdoğan’s plan to assert Turkic identity. Actually, Turkey lacks a direct link to Central Asia, a region, considered to be Russia’s sphere of influence, and the only roadblocks are Armenia and the Nagorno Karabakh Republic. Attacking Armenia and taking control of the Nagorno-Karabakh region was, therefore, a part of Erdoğan’s dreams to unite the Turkic world from Central Asia to Turkey under Ankara’s leadership.
Azerbaijan is itself a former Soviet State. And for all we know, Baku has fallen prey to Erdoğan’s radical Turkic push. Azerbaijan may even be hosting Turkey-backed mercenaries, something that Russia wouldn’t have fancied.
Moreover, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin will find it extremely disturbing that Ankara is trying to become the dominant power in Central Asia- a region that Moscow considers to be its privileged sphere of influence.
As per Jamestown Foundation, a Washington D.C.-based think-tank with special focus on Eurasia, has reported that three of the four Turkic-majority Central Asian nations- Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan, have already taken note of the drastic changes that have happened in Azerbaijan. As per the Washington D.C.-based think-tank, these three countries are “increasingly looking toward Ankara for guidance.”
This is not to say that Turkey has won over Central Asia. Central Asian nations are sandwiched between big Asian powers like India, China and Russia. And these countries are not going to make any rash geopolitical manoeuvres in Turkey’s favour any time soon. Nevertheless, Ankara has made a big move by looking to interfere in this part of the world.
Also, Central Asia is just one dimension of the Russo-Turkish rivalry. Erdoğan’s Turkic push can create tensions within Russia also. There are Turkic regions within the Russian Federation that might be vulnerable to the pro-Turkic narrative coming from Ankara or Baku.
In fact, according to Jamestown Foundation, pro-Azerbaijani and pro-Turkic rallies were organised in Volga Tatars. The size of these demonstrations was small, yet the message was clear and reportedly troubled the Central authorities in Moscow.
And then Russia has been concerned about Nagorno-Karabakh, or Southern Caucasus region, turning into a launchpad for terrorists due to Ankara’s reckless actions. Russia would remain concerned, given the possibility of Erdoğan using radical elements to destabilise Russia’s Turkic regions.
Then Moldova is another former Soviet State about which Russia may be worried. Moldova recently elected a pro-EU leader, but the Eastern European nation cannot choose the EU over Russia. Moscow exercises considerable influence in parts of Moldova like Gagauz, an Orthodox Christian Turkic region in Southeastern Moldova.
Russian influence in Gagauz along with separatist Transnistria meant that even a pro-EU leadership in Chisinau couldn’t simply snub Moscow and drift towards Brussels. But given how Erdoğan asserts his Turkic Identity, it won’t be a matter of surprise if he doesn’t drum up the identity issue in Gagauz as well, much to Russia’s chagrin.
As such Erdoğan’s dangerous strategy of ratcheting the global Turkic identity is bound to shape Russia and Turkey for a wide conflict spread throughout the former Soviet space. Erdoğan is irking Russia, but Putin is not the one to excuse Ankara’s belligerent moves.