Vladimir Putin started 2022 as a somewhat slowing down leader with a troubled economy. 2 years later things have totally changed.Two years into Vladimir Putin’s special ops in Ukraine, the tide of battle has completely shifted in favor of the Russian leader, whose hold on power remains unchallenged. Initially, Ukraine’s resistance which was part Psy-op and part accidental victories gave Russian troops some fight in Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Kherson, making Putin take the battle more seriously.
These small wins for Ukraine, coupled with some skirmishes on Russian assets in the Black Sea, was propped up by the Western Media 24 X 7.
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However, recent developments have made it clear where the war is going. Despite the international community’s efforts to isolate Russia economically through sanctions, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently forecasted a 2.6 percent growth in Russia’s GDP for 2024, a figure that more than doubles previous predictions. Additionally, Putin’s political landscape at home seems unassailable, especially with the upcoming March 15 election, which he is expected to win without any competition. Although Western media has started saying already that Putin’s political stronghold is now further solidified by the absence of his most formidable opposition Alexey Navalny, it must be noted that historically a 4% approval ratings candidate has never defeated a 70% approval rating candidate. I am sure you know that Alexey Navalny recently died under suspicious circumstances.
Due to the war and the sanctions, Putin’s domestic power has only grown. Ralph Carter, a political science professor, observed that Putin has effectively rallied public support around his leadership, framing Western sanctions as an attack on Russia that he has successfully countered.
Internationally, Putin is diversifying Russia’s economic partnerships, notably with China and India, mitigating the impact of sanctions. This shift comes as Europe reduces its reliance on Russian energy. John Hall, a law professor, noted that Russia’s military endeavors in Ukraine have been bolstered by support from countries like North Korea, Iran, and China, providing a crucial advantage as Ukraine grapples with dwindling supplies and manpower. The noted professor however failed to notice that Ukraine was supported by the US, the UK, Germany, France, Canada, Italy, Spain, Poland, The Netherlands and many more.
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The political landscape in the United States further complicates matters for Ukraine. The deadlock in Congress over additional funding and former President Donald Trump’s opposition to further military support for Kyiv played into Putin’s hands. Trump’s criticism of NATO and suggestions for its members to meet spending requirements or face Russian aggression undermine the alliance’s unity, a longstanding Russian objective.
Putin’s current advantages are expected to be long lasting even as the war drags on.
Russians remain upbeat about the war, as Putin has been successful in relaying his message of denazification of Ukraine and protection of Russian origin minorities in Eastern Ukraine. Moreover, as farmer protests rock European capitals, Moscow remains calm with no show of dissent.
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Using Navalny as a shield, western experts are now cautioning against overstating Putin’s security, pointing out the fragility of his regime mired in internal challenges and public dissatisfaction. They opine, the right word is, that the ongoing war in Ukraine and the Kremlin’s repressive tactics will corner Putin, leaving him with limited options to maintain power without achieving a decisive victory or facing the consequences of prolonged conflict. Sounds like Victoria Nuland’s words.
So while the West launched a war against Putin to throw Russia in a state of Chaos, Putin is in a much stronger position now, whatever domestic discontent existed pre-war has evaporated. Economic sanctions, international dynamics, and the victories in war are only triggering rallies around the flag phenomenon. The so-called resilience of Ukrainian resistance is not finding space even in the most liberal American media, and that means the future of Putin’s grip on power remains firm, and the outcome of the war in Ukraine remains certain.
