Recent polling by the Kyiv International Institute for Sociology (KIIS) indicates an increasing proportion of Ukrainians are open to making territorial concessions to Russia in exchange for peace. Despite this shift, both Kyiv and Moscow remain far from initiating negotiations. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has firmly rejected any agreements with Russia’s current leadership, even enacting a decree to rule out talks with President Vladimir Putin.
However, in a recent BBC interview, Zelensky mentioned that Russian representatives should attend a planned “peace summit” in November. He indicated that if Moscow were willing to discuss a plan to end the war in line with the U.N. Charter, Kyiv would be open to dialogue. Newsweek has reached out to Zelensky’s office for further comments on this matter.
Zelensky has not indicated a readiness to cede territory for peace—a stance supported by Kyiv and its allies, including the United States, who argue that such concessions would reward Putin’s aggression. Nevertheless, the latest KIIS poll, which has been tracking Ukrainian attitudes since May 2022, suggests a changing perspective among the population.
The poll reveals that 32 percent of Ukrainians would accept giving up territory to “achieve peace and preserve independence,” an increase from 26 percent in February this year and a significant rise from 9 percent in February 2023. Viktor Kovalenko, a defense analyst and former Ukrainian soldier, told Newsweek that Ukrainian morale for reclaiming all territories may be diminishing due to exhaustion and heavy losses. He noted that the Ukrainian military has adopted a defensive stance and lacks the capabilities for a counteroffensive. Additionally, despite assurances of steadfast support, Western aid appears increasingly uncertain.
The survey also found that 55 percent of respondents still opposed territorial concessions to end the war. This figure has decreased from 74 percent in December 2023 and 65 percent in February 2024. Opposition to territorial concessions varied by region, with the highest resistance in western Ukraine (60 percent) and the lowest in the south (46 percent).
The KIIS clarified that the poll questions did not specify which territories might be conceded nor did they imply peace on any terms or surrender. When asked about acceptable peace scenarios, 62 percent of respondents favored regaining all occupied territories and joining the EU without NATO membership. The second most popular proposal, supported by 53 percent, involved ceding control of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, as well as Crimea, while regaining full control of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts and joining NATO and the EU.
Kovalenko suggested that the decrease in advocates for reverting to the 1991 borders provides Zelensky with more diplomatic flexibility to end the war with minimal domestic opposition. He mentioned that Zelensky might consider using the war as an opportunity to sever ties with the pro-Russian Donbas, potentially strengthening Ukraine. Kovalenko noted that a significant portion of Ukrainian society views the industrialized Donbas as a financial burden and an obstacle to Ukraine’s aspirations to join the EU and NATO.
KIIS director Anton Hrushetskyi emphasized in a media release that, despite some flexibility on territorial concessions, Ukrainians “clearly do not agree to peace on any terms.” The survey, conducted among 3,075 adults in all regions controlled by the Ukrainian government between May 16-22 and June 20-25, has a margin of error of 5 percent.
