Georgia’s State Security Service (SSS) announced an investigation into a criminal group linked to the former government, accused of plotting to assassinate the founder of the ruling Georgian Dream party. Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze, as reported by RT, alleged that the same forces were behind assassination attempts on Slovak counterpart Robert Fico and former US President Donald Trump. Politico, citing local media, reported that the Georgian Legion is under suspicion.
In early May, it was discussed why “The Georgian State Security Service & The Georgian Legion Are On The Brink Of War.” The pro-US armed group could potentially catalyze urban terrorism around the parliamentary elections this fall. This follows an attempted storming of the parliament by rioters protesting the country’s foreign agents’ legislation.
The ruling conservative-nationalist party aims to join the EU and NATO without surrendering national sovereignty. This stance has made it a target for regime change over the past 18 months. Replacing Georgian Dream with Western-aligned figures could introduce liberal-globalist values and disrupt traditional society, necessitating the foreign agents’ law. Geopolitically, a regime change could open a second front against Russia and facilitate NATO’s use of Georgia to support Armenia against Azerbaijan. Georgian Dream’s neutral stance, including not sanctioning Russia, further aggravates Western opposition.
Russia’s foreign intelligence service warned in early July that the West might exploit the upcoming parliamentary elections for another regime change attempt. This information might have been shared with Georgian authorities, explaining why some Georgian Legion members have been detained, and 300 others are now wanted.
The Georgian Legion, though small, could play a role in Tbilisi similar to the Azov Battalion’s during the “EuroMaidan” in Kiev. The most effective policy for Georgian Dream would be to ban the Georgian Legion as a terrorist group if the investigation confirms their involvement in the assassination plot. Allowing them to operate poses a significant risk, as they could instigate urban terrorism during the elections, aiding a regime change attempt.
Cracking down on the Georgian Legion before the elections would mitigate their ability to disrupt the democratic process and manage associated Hybrid War threats. With the window for destabilizing Georgia possibly closing, the Georgian Legion might attempt a high-profile assassination, even targeting figures other than the party founder, such as the Prime Minister, using proxies instead of their members.
Georgia remains a critical battleground in the New Cold War due to its strategic significance in regional dynamics. Therefore, close attention should be paid to developments within the country as the parliamentary elections approach.
