US officials are waking up. It feels like Trump’s victory has smacked them out of their slumber and made them realise: Ukraine can’t win. And the same US officials are now drawing up plans to end the war, even if it means surrender for Kyiv and Zelensky.
Ukraine may soon have no choice but to negotiate with Russia and could end up losing some of its territory, according to a report in the Washington Post.
Ukraine is done now. With Trump set to return to the White House in January and Kyiv forces suffering major losses on the battlefield, Ukraine is in its weakest position since the conflict began nearly three years ago. Russia has recently reclaimed territory in the Kursk Region. Media reports said Ukraine has already lost 40% of the Kursk area it once occupied. So, it means the bargaining chip it once had is slowly withering away.
Many officials in the outgoing Biden team believe that in a few months, Ukraine could be forced to enter negotiations with Russia. These negotiations might require Ukraine to give up some of its territory. This view is also spreading among European countries that support Ukraine. There is a growing, although quiet, acceptance that Ukraine may not be able to regain all the land it considers its own.
Joe Biden’s recent decision to allow Ukraine to use US-supplied ATACMS missiles to strike deep into Russian territory and to provide banned landmines was intended to strengthen Ukraine’s position.
The goal is to give Ukraine a stronger hand in any potential peace talks that might occur after Trump takes office. Biden’s administration is aware that Trump is unlikely to continue providing the same level of support to Ukraine.
Simply put, Biden is trying hard to Trump-proof Ukraine’s potential negotiations with Russia.
Zelensky has made it clear that he does not support any plan that involves giving up land to Russia. However, many US officials are preparing for the possibility that future US support may decrease.
Yes, the Trump team has already hinted that it will not focus on oiling the war machinery by pumping money into Ukraine but will seek ways to enforce peace.
Trymp ally Bryan Lanza recently said the Trump administration 2.0 may not push to help Ukraine get all its land back.
Lanza remarked that if Zelensky insists on getting Crimea back, it would mean he isn’t serious about peace. Russia took over Crimea from Ukraine in 2014 after a long period of tension.
Lanza said, “If Zelensky says peace can only happen if Crimea is returned, he’s showing that he isn’t serious”
He continued, “If Zelensky is saying that fighting will only stop when Crimea is returned, we have news for him: Crimea is gone.”
Kyiv is in deep pain but most of it came from its own decisions. For instance: The Kursk offensive.
Ukraine sent some of its best-equipped and most experienced troops into the Kursk Region. Kyiv believed capturing this territory would slow down Russian advances on other fronts and give them more leverage in future peace talks. However, Russia claims to have successfully pushed back these forces, inflicting heavy losses. Russian Defense Minister Andrey Belousov praised his troops for stopping Ukraine’s plans and awarded medals to soldiers who showed bravery.
Russia sees the failed Kursk operation as a major turning point. As per Russian military estimates, Ukraine has lost over 34,500 soldiers and hundreds of tanks and other heavy weapons in the Kursk campaign. Russia has made it clear that peace talks will not begin until all Kyiv forces leave the region.
In summary, Ukraine faces significant challenges. Its forces are struggling on the battlefield, and international support could decrease in the future. Many US and European officials now believe negotiations with Russia may be inevitable, and Ukraine might have to give up some land to reach a peace deal.
