Libya is blazing, at least 32 people are declared to have been killed and 159 reportedly injured in a recent uprising between the Libyans and armed groups. According to official statements, the current violence is the worst that has occurred since Mohd Gaddafi’s fall.
The protests started near Tripoli, the capital of Libya, and have since spread over the entire nation. In the midst of all this chaos, however, there is one unexpected casualty, EUROPE.
This brewing civil war could bring about another doomsday for the European nations, and as a result, the next winters could be irreparably doomed.
According to Al-Jazeera, The United Nations-recognised GNA government based in Tripoli and the supporters of Sirte based rival Prime Minister Fathi Bashagha clashed with each other as Bashagha now eyes to take back control of Tripoli.
Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh, who is backed by the UN, and Fatehi Bashagha, who is backed by Haftar, have their horns locked. But their most recent confrontation has caused fresh tensions in the already unstable region.
Earlier this week, PM-designate Fathi Bashagha asked rival Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh to peacefully cede power amid rising military tensions in Tripoli. According to Bashagha, Dbeibeh should ‘comply with the decisions of the legislative authority of the Libyan state, which is the same authority that gave him the vote of confidence.’
But, Dbeibeh is not ready to step down as he believes his sudden ousting is a major conspiracy, a Coup d’état in hiding.
Dbeibeh calls for Elections
The UN-backed PM has now called for elections because he thinks Bashagha and Russia’s bonhomie with Haftar is plotting a coup against him.
Dbeibeh during his address to the nation in a televised speech exclaimed: “When they saw our city Tripoli in peace, they were jealous. For those who think they can stage a coup, we tell them the coup era has now passed and for those who want elections, we are ready for elections, we’re not moving forward unless we go to elections and if they want otherwise, we have men.”
After which, the situation blew out of proportion. Brutal bloodshed erupted in the Libyan capital on Saturday between armed supporters and forces, causing the death of at least 32 people while 159 were injured, according to the Libyan health ministry.
The situation is quite volatile in the region as it is back to where it was, that is a perpetual government crisis. UN is literally in blood, sweat, and tears to keep Dbeibeh in power. His days are regrettably numbered given the significant rebellion against him.
But, there is something bigger that is being overlooked. If Bashagha storms into Tripoli, all efforts by the West to control Libya’s oil would be in vain and, that would be a significant victory for Russia.
Read More: Democracy can’t revive Libya, only a strong and decisive King can
A Fight for Oil
Instead of focusing on a mission to establish peace, Western players have always been more concerned with having control over Libya’s oil and gas. Therefore, the conflict between Dbeibeh and Bashagha is more than just power; it also involves who will control the oil and gas fields.
If one remembers correctly, a few months ago, US ambassador to Libya Richard Norland proposed a renewed version of the erstwhile failed policy namely “oil for food program” imposed on Iraq in 1995 to deny Iraq the freedom of managing and utilizing its oil revenues.
This is what Bashagha has always opposed, and as a result, Bashagha’s allies deliberately shutter oil and gas fields. Six oil fields and terminals have remained closed since mid-April. Apparently, Bashagha’s supporters sought to curb the flow of the National Oil Corporation’s petrodollars to the Central Bank of Libya, which is controlled by the UN.
The problematic situation in the oil and gas fields is now being exacerbated by this most recent unrest. But, the recent situation in Libya may have a significant negative impact on the EU.
The Ukraine war and the sanction saga have already forced Brussels to scramble for energy across the globe. Libya could have played a major role in providing the EU with its elixir namely energy.
In 2021, the EU’s imports from Oil rich Libya amounted to €4.0 billion and most of it was dominated by fuel and mining products in particular petroleum and petroleum products.
Read More: United States comes up with a new plan to plunder Libyan oil, but Russia won’t allow it
EU had a lot of interest in Tripoli in comparison to the Western actors; Libya was a far good option in its search for energy. However, in the prevailing situation as soon as Haftar’s man i.e. Bashagha enters Tripoli, his Russian allegiance would never allow exports of energy without major profits and honestly, the EU is in no position to provide so.
EU’s desires would be significantly dashed. A really harsh winter now awaits Europe, as Russia is tightening the noose of energy blockade around Europe’s neck.
