Turkey has been the biggest failure story of 2020 after Pakistan. All of its aims and objectives have been decimated and as it stands on the brink of an economic disaster, it has changed its tone with regards to its erstwhile Western allies. Now, with everything lost, Erdogan’s lackeys and state media is giving out suggestions for Azerbaijan to start putting in place an exit strategy for Russian peacekeeping forces in the Nagorno Karabakh region. However, it sounds exactly like an angry rant from a country whose plans for gaining influence in the region had failed, as Russians sent their peacekeeping forces and the Turks were not allowed to have their way.
Erdogan has lost so hard that he and his courtiers are looking for glimpses of moral victory and which is why their media outlets are spewing narratives like this. The state-run media house TRT World has even gone to the extent of mentioning it as a victory for Turkey because (as per them) the balance of power in the South Caucasus has shifted away from Moscow and slightly closer to Ankara. And as the Russians have unmanned the Turks by getting the two sides, Armenia and Azerbaijan, signed a peace deal and then sending its peacekeeping forces in the disputed region, thus, denying Turkey any chance of gaining ground in the region.
As per the peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan, Moscow has sent 2000 peacekeeping troops, but the supply of additional military equipment has been something which Russia has decided on its own and was not previously agreed upon. The positioning of the boots on the ground accompanied with the weaponry means that Russia has no plans to leave the region anytime soon. That is, if we look at this development in the backdrop of Moscow’s interests of decimating Turkish designs, it all makes perfect sense.
“One is at its most vulnerable when it is in a false sense of victory, and this is the exact moment when predators love to hunt.” It is the statement from TFI’s article where we had made informed speculation of the peace deal and subsequent stationing of Russian Peacekeeping forces as a masterstroke on Putin’s part to establish Russian control on Nagorno-Karabakh without any international resistance. With the presence of Russian troops with lethal weapons, which can cause serious damage to any adventurism from Azeri and Turkish side, Putin has most likely outplayed geopolitical chess in the southern Caucasus.
As Turkey has no other way or even the opportunity so that it can try to garner influence in the southern Caucasus, it has been constantly criticizing the Russians for their presence in Nagorno-Karabakh and the Azeris because they went back to Russia’s fold at a time when Turkey thought it was siding with them.
This is what the Turks have realised and now as they are themselves in deep trouble, they are not able to find a single source of claim to tell their citizen that the country is faring well, and thus, Erdogan and his lackeys are in a process of constant denial as well as spewing rants and anger fits towards Azerbaijan and Russia.