The fact that Joe Biden is being forced to toe the line of the USA’s Indo-Pacific allies, China has also been forced to revamp its foreign policy dynamics. In an effort to face a new reality, a view is being echoed that China needs to boost its military spending further, given the increased possibility of a conflict with India and the USA. Two generals who are members of the Central Military Commission (CMC) led by President Xi Jinping made these comments during the annual national legislative session held in Beijing.
The first month of Joe Biden’s pro-China actions made Beijing too comfortable and it thought that the testing times of the Trump era are over. Perhaps, Xi Jinping also thought that with the situation with the USA easing up, India would also lower its offensive both militarily and economically. However, as the Indo-Pacific allies of the USA remained non-relenting, and forced Joe Biden to toe the Trump era line vis a vis China, Chinese generals are now insisting to vastly increase the military budget and firepower, given the possibility of a conflict with India and the USA seems inevitable.
CMC Vice Chairman Xu Qiliang, China’s top uniformed officer, said the country needed to brace for a “Thucydides Trap,” an inevitable conflict between a rising power and an established one. “Facing the ‘Thucydides Trap’ and border disturbances, the military must step up its efforts to improve its capabilities,” Xu said Friday, although the transcript wasn’t released until later. “The most important thing is internal unity and cohesion and improvement of overall capabilities. If you are strong, you will have long-term stability, as well as invincibility.”
The “Thucydides Trap” refers to ancient Greek historian Thucydides’ explanation of the Peloponnesian War as an inevitable clash between a rising Athens and the established regional power, Sparta.
Xu’s reference to “border disturbances” may be an allusion to China’s deadly clash with India last year, as well as territorial disputes in the South China Sea and East China Sea. Chinese Defense Minister Wei Fenghe, who also sits on the CMC, separately said that “containment and counter-containment will be the main tone of bilateral ties between China and U.S.”
It is a subtle but significant admission on the part of the Chinese that they were not able to achieve what they intended, in the Himalayas and thus they are seeking to increase there military spending to counter the currents of containment.
The election of Joe Biden and following a pacifying foreign policy of the USA vis a vis China made the Chinese Communist Party too confident. Beijing was sure that whatever it does, the USA will look the other way. However, in its calculations, it did not consider that countries in the Indo-Pacific region will take matters into their own hands and force the Biden administration to follow. Joe Biden has been forced to give the Quad alliance its due time and respect.
Read more: Ahead of the Quad meeting, desperate Beijing trying to placate India.
The actions of the allied countries and the continued interest of European countries to engage in the Indo-Pacific has forced the hands of Joe Biden. A national security strategy document released last week by US President Joe Biden affirmed Trump’s designation of China as a “strategic competitor.” The strategy seeks to put less emphasis on using the American military to resolve conflicts and pledges to work with “like-minded countries” to forge a common approach to Beijing.
These developments have dismantled the rosy picture that Xi Jinping had perceived with the Biden administration’s policy for approximately the first month. In line with these changes, Wei, the defence minister, said struggles over containment efforts would “last throughout the whole process of China’s national rejuvenation.”
“China’s national security has entered a phase of high risks. Tasks are mounting for the defence sector and military,” Wei said, adding China “must comprehensively strengthen training and preparedness for war and improve the strategic capability to win over strong enemies.”
These developments and comments tell us how China has become panicky suddenly. And the fact that Beijing is looking for increasing military spending, even more, there is no doubt that a conflict with the US and India is inevitable.