What should an ambitious minnow sandwiched between two giants do? Wisdom dictates it should befriend both of them and get something out of both the giants. This is exactly what the Shia-majority nation of Iran is doing. On one hand, it is hugging the Biden administration at the helm of affairs in the Oval Office and on the other hand, it is kissing the Chinese.
To put it briefly, Iran has been blackmailing the US because it knows that US President Joe Biden is way too desperate for reviving the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) or the Iran nuclear deal. On the other hand, Tehran has also signed a 25-year strategic cooperation agreement that includes collaboration in all areas including commerce, economics and transportation with China.
The relationship between Iran and China was not very natural. It was a consequence of Trump’s “maximum pressure” policy against Tehran. Trump crippled Iran politically, economically and diplomatically, and therefore, Tehran needed some external support to reinvigorate itself.
As a part of this strategic roadmap, Iran secured $280 billion in Chinese investments for the development of Iranian gas, oil and petrochemical products. According to a New York Times report, Beijing agreed to spend $400 billion in Iran over the next 25 years in return for a secure supply of oil to boost its growing economy.
Iran itself views the deal as beneficial. According to Iran’s Fars news agency, the agreement should be viewed as a long-term political, diplomatic, economic and cultural programme that includes investment and finance clauses as well as reciprocal support in international forums.
However, the US-Iran dynamics themselves have changed drastically. After Biden’s accession to power, the Oval Office’s hostility towards Tehran has vanished. In fact, right from the word go, Biden has been moving with a one-point agenda on Iran, which is to revive the defective JCPOA at any cost. The burden of the Iran nuclear deal has been inherited by Biden in legacy from his former boss, Barack Obama.
The Iranian government too has been making full use of Biden’s political compulsions. Tehran understands that Biden wants to revive the JCPOA, even if Iran doesn’t move towards denuclearisation. Recently, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported that Iran has “almost completed preparations” to launch 60 per cent uranium enrichment.
According to the United Nations’ nuclear watchdog, Iran said that it will activate 1,024 more IR-1 centrifuges, its older first generation of the machines at the Natanz nuclear plant. Yet, the US and Iran are supposed to meet in Vienna for salvaging the 2015 nuclear deal. Despite Iran’s provocations, the Biden administration is acting predictably and failing to harm Iran’s interests.
Tehran is also pushing for a full rollback of the sanctions that were imposed on it by the Trump administration, as a necessary precondition for any fruitful discussions regarding nuclear compliance. In conclusion, Tehran has managed to step up its nuclear preparations, while also stepping up the pressure on Biden to roll back sanctions.
Read More: Iran says it will go ahead with nuclear enrichment and it is a message for Biden and not Israel
Till now, the Biden administration has been resisting Iranian pressure. But ultimately, he will have to succumb. Biden is too weak a President to defy his ex-boss Barack Obama who had announced the Iran nuclear deal with much fanfare. The Biden administration doesn’t really have a choice, as it has a legacy issue of returning to the Iran nuclear deal, regardless of the geopolitical costs and consequences.
However, the biggest takeaway is how Iran has managed to do two things at once. It has sealed a 25 year cooperation agreement with one giant- China, and at the same time, it has managed to move towards a full rollback of sanctions from the other giant, the United States.
To be precise, Tehran might not need the China deal any longer, because the US will anyway go soft on the Iranian economy. But Iran doesn’t mind if two giants shower gifts on it simultaneously. This is Tehran’s clever philandering- it is tempting China strategically on one side, and blackmailing benefits out of the US on the other.
Peace through strength is a sound global strategy against near peer rivals, but how about rivals that are not technologically or militarily advanced? How do they win against a more advanced military power like the USA? In the past, wars were started and finished using military force, however, the CCP has changed all that. The book, “Unrestricted Warfare” released in 1999 by the PLA “outlines the synchronized employment of a multitude of means to be used concurrently with military force to prevail in a conflict including hacking into government websites underpinning an opponent’s administration of government, disrupting financial institutions, exploiting the West’s open media, promoting social discord, interference in democratic elections, and conducting urban warfare”. Does this sound familiar? For a book, written 3 years before the attacks of 9/11, it has mentioned Osama bin Laden multiple times and has floated the idea of attacking the world trade center. Clearly this should be unnerving to not just the US but any country, free or not. Let us not forget that after this book posed the question of what is a weapon? ….. and also encouraged “directed research”, China started their biological weapons program. When and where was Sars and Covid 19 virus created? Why 2003 , 2019, Wuhan Lab! I am not a believer in conspiracy theories, which many will point too when ideas like this are presented, however, are the facts just too relevant and plain to ignore? We have all heard this saying many times, “All’s fair in love and war”, which means in love and war you do not have to obey the usual rules about reasonable behavior. Does this describe the actions of the belligerent and expansionist CCP? Of course it does! The CCP will do anything, which they are, to surpass the US and impose their totalitarian ideals on the Free World. Then why is the US and the West so predisposed to rational and reasonable behavior when it comes to dealing with them? Have the CCP, by their own definition, declared war on the US and the Free World? Yes they have ….. and they are putting the health and welfare of the entire world in jeopardy. One need look no farther than the Pandemic to realize we (the human race) had the potential of a ‘E.L.E., a extinction level event, on our hands, and we still do not know what the outcome will be! So, are we to continue to handle the maker of this E.L.E. with kid gloves until they initiate another? NO! The People of the Free World elects their government to protect them from all evils. Playing fair and not using one’s own weapons against an inferior, immoral and a ‘will stop at nothing to win regime, is ignoring the age old saying, All’s Fair in Love and War”. The West needs to “Take the gloves off” disobey the usual rules about reasonable behavior and remove these ungodly, immoral, inhumane creatures from our planet! “All’s Fair in Love and War”