Officially called the Socialist Republic of Vietnam, this southeast Asian nation has been giving China a run for its money for quite some time now. Vietnam is by far the most significant and powerful country in southeast Asia, and one which is best placed to challenge the growing Chinese belligerence and expansionism in the region. In recent history, throughout the 20th century, Vietnam has fought successive wars. After World War II, France returned to reclaim colonial power in the First Indochina War, from which Vietnam emerged victorious in 1954. The Vietnam War began shortly after, during which, the nation was divided into communist North, and anti-communist South supported by the United States.
The United States-led anti-communist front was defeated, and Ho Chi Minh’s forces emerged victorious, marking the establishment of a socialist state in Vietnam. Then came in the 1979 war with China, when the paper dragon thought it could score a victory against a tired and worn-out Vietnamese forces. Instead, China got its pants pulled down by Vietnam. China has not fought a war with any nation ever since. Vietnam scarred China’s wimp-like forces to such an extent that they completely gave up on conventional warfare.
Vietnam stealing China’s thunder:
Vietnam is one of the fastest growing economies of the 21st century. Vietnam has many attractive features: cheap input costs, stable politics, and increasingly liberalized trade and investment policies, especially after its free trade agreement with the European Union (EU). According to leading think tank Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Vietnam has had the region’s highest increase of global market share in the past five years. That growth has allowed it to match Thailand‘s and Malaysia’s levels of gross exports and surpass that of Indonesia’s, whose GDP is four times larger.
Foreign investment into Vietnam have also been steadily increasing, as a result of which, the share of FDI in Vietnam’s GDP has been rising. Vietnam is on an infrastructure building spree. In 2016, Vietnam ranked 64 on World Bank’s rankings of national infrastructure. Cut to 2018, the country jumped to the 39th spot. As infrastructure improves in Vietnam, more and more multinational companies and manufacturers will shift to the ASEAN nation.
According to the Agency of Foreign Trade under the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MoIT), Vietnamese firms have maximised advantages to boost exports and penetrate new markets. With 17 free trade agreements (FTAs) whose negotiations have been completed or underway, Vietnam has become an open economy with a trade-to-GDP ratio of up to 200%. The country’s total trade value rose from US$84.7 billion in 2006 to $545.3 billion last year. What is also fascinating about Vietnam is that it has always recorded a trade surplus since 2016. In 2020, its trade surplus stood at $19 billion.
Ever since Covid-19 became an international menace after having spilled over from China, Vietnam has been the most favoured destination for companies seeking to diversify their supply chains. Manufacturers have been moving out of China, and Vietnam has been their first choice. According to a study by Japanese financial group Nomura, 56 companies moved their bases from China in 2018-19, and Vietnam was able to secure 26 of them. Vietnam is most favoured by companies moving out of China, since it is in close proximity to their previous base, and the labour costs are not dissimilar. So, manufacturers can seamlessly shift base from China to Vietnam. Vietnam has, in particular, been stealing Japanese firms and other corporate entities as they leave China in quest of new opportunities. And then, there is the added benefit of Vietnam not being ruled by a mad and dictatorial regime.
Vietnam’s military strength:
In 2019, Vietnam had the 23rd most powerful military in the world, according to a ranking by U.S. website Global Firepower. In 2018, Vietnam was ranked 20. This makes it the second most powerful country in South East Asia after Indonesia. Vietnam has a total of 318 aircraft, including 140 helicopters. The country has 2,575 combat tanks. Vietnam’s naval strength, with 65 ships, placed it in 36th position in the category.
In June this year, Vietnam formed a new militia squadron in the southern province of Kien Giang, which borders Cambodia and is the largest location in the Mekong Delta. Reconnaissance and marine exploitation are the duties of the militia squadrons. The militia is aimed squarely at China.
Also read: Vietnam has created a huge fleet of fishing boat militia and China is left absolutely clueless
It must be remembered that Chinese fishing boats are frequently used as maritime militias. China utilises the so-called fishing vessels to harass other countries’ fishermen all throughout the western Pacific, particularly the contentious south China Sea. However, with Vietnam setting up its own militia, China has been left clueless.
Vietnam – the most decisive in a region of confusion:
In a region that still works by the sentiment of not antagonising China, Vietnam is a country which is always willing to take on China. All other countries in southeast Asia, like Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand, Malaysia, Cambodia, Laos, and others, are too confused. They do not know whether they should be going out of their way to challenge growing Chinese belligerence in the region. Indonesia, for instance, does not seem to have a very coherent China policy, and anything resembling a policy which might be in place right now seems to be favouring the communist nation. Rodrigo Duterte of the Philippines is simply too inclined to have good ties with China to take any substantial action against it. So that’s that.
Also read: China deliberately kept Thailand, Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia thirsty. It’s payback time for China
Malaysia recently summoned the Chinese envoy, after China conducted an incursion into Malaysian airspace with a package of aircraft. However, that was more of a knee-jerk reaction to something which China has grown very fond of, in the region. ASEAN should have been united in their fight against China. It is not.
The only country with a consistent anti-China outlook has been Vietnam. As such, Vietnam is going to soon become the one nation which global powers bank on, to push against Chinese aggression. The true power of Vietnam still remains untapped. Vietnam must be made the country which is armed to the teeth, by countries around the world, especially the USA, UK, France, India and others – which are very much interested to counter China’s rise. Vietnam must be made a regional superpower, because it deserves nothing less.