For almost a century, Central Asian nations have been a bastion of influence for Russia. But, Kazakhstan’s leader Kassym-Jomart Tokayev is breaking the jinx. It appears he is biting more than he can chew. With the end of the USSR, Kazakhstan became the 15th member of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). The close ties between Kazakhstan and Russia were formally established at this point.
Since that time, Russia and Kazakhstan have developed in a cordial and collaborative way. The largest trading partner of Russia in Central Asia is Kazakhstan. Strong economic ties exist between the two nations, with Russia being Kazakhstan’s biggest investor. Kazakhstan’s infrastructure and economy have benefited from Russian investment, which has helped it rank among the region’s most prosperous economies.
Central Asia has long been an area of influence for Russia. This can be seen in its close relationship with Kazakhstan. Russia’s presence in the region is strong, and it has been instrumental in helping Kazakhstan develop economically and politically. As such, Kazakhstan has become an essential partner for Russia in the region, and the two countries’ friendship and cooperation will undoubtedly continue to grow. However, Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev is going exactly the opposite of what Kazakhstan and Russia followed for years.
Kassym-Jomart Tokayev challenging Russia!
In a surprising turn of events, Kazakhstan has seized Russian space assets in Kazakhstan. And it is threatening Russia’s Soyuz-5 rocket launch. Reportedly, Authorities in Kazakhstan impounded Russian assets at the Baikonur Cosmodrome, escalating a post-Soviet feud over the legendary base from which mankind first touched the stars. Baikonur is pivotal to the Russian space program.
Although it isn’t physically located in Russia, the Kremlin has leased it ever since Kazakhstan gained its independence after the fall of the Soviet Union. It is the location where Yuri Gagarin launched into space for the first time in 1961 and where Sputnik, the first artificial satellite in orbit, was launched in 1957. Tokayev’s government in Astana has attempted to take entire control of this launch site. Russian and Kazakhstan governments have become embroiled in disputes over the terms of the lease, and more recently over the environmental impact of the rockets.
Everything was well between Putin and Kassym-Jomart Tokayev However, after the start of the Ukraine war, Tokayev started shifting away from Russia’s influence. The world was caught off-guard when, in St. Petersburg economic forum, Tokayev disagreed with Putin’s claim that he was defending Russian speakers in the self-declared Donetsk and Luhansk peoples’ republics of eastern Ukraine, which Russia had recognized as independent, days before the invasion. Well, Tokayev’s replies were far from Putin’s expectations.
In fact, Kazakhstan didn’t recognize the “quasi-state territories” of Russia. Kassym-Jomart Tokayev even chided Putin stressing that “there’d be “chaos” in the world if hundreds of new countries emerged, even as there is a conflict between the legal principles of territorial integrity of states and the right of people living in them to self-determination.”
Read More: Putin has ordered a new President for Kazakhstan
Blue-eyed boy for the West!
Tokayev’s actions in recent times have undoubtedly caught the attention of Western allies and guess what, they have already started luring Kazakhstan. Exactly a month ago, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken arrived in Kazakhstan, his first stop on a Central Asia trip to meet his counterparts from all five former Soviet republics in the region. Blinken sat down for talks with Kazakh foreign minister Mukhtar Tileuberdi and then with Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev.
US officials emphasized that the Biden administration wants to increase engagement with the country because it is suffering economically as a result of the conflict. In addition, the UK recently announced that it will support Kazakhstan in developing export routes that avoid Russia, according to British Foreign Minister James Cleverly, who was in Kazakhstan at the time.
The UK also signed a deal for rare earth minerals. Cleverly stated that London respected Astana’s stance on the Ukrainian conflict, given that it has historically been closely allied with Moscow. Kazakhstan has refused to endorse or acknowledge Russia’s invasion of Ukrainian territory. Similarly, the EU wants to import gas from Kazakhstan instead of Russia. Kazakhstan, meanwhile, has made the decision to increase its agricultural exports to the EU.
Kassym-Jomart Tokayev seems to be cashing in on Russia’s waning influence in the West. Because of this, he seems to be acting in a way that suggests to the West that he alone is capable of opposing Putin in Central Asia.
Read More: Putin has officially begun the Russification of Kazakhstan
A Traitor in eyes of Moscow!
Surprisingly, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev was once the man that called Russia for help.
At Tokayev’s plead, Russia sent in a militia to quell the riots and support President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, successor in 2019 to Nursultan Nazarbayev, who held office for more than 30 years. Tokayev, who appeared to secure a comfortable majority in the vote, has since shown himself to be anything but a Putin puppet, criticizing the war in Ukraine even as higher energy prices due to the war have benefited the country.
Kassym-Jomart Tokayev before 2022 and after 2022 are two different personalities. He now seeks to consolidate his power and establish Kazakhstan as a country that is no longer pro-Russia. Will he be able to accomplish it, though? Given that he and his people are situated at two different poles over Russia, that appears to be quite impossible. The Central Asia Barometer found that between 2017 and 2019, 87% of Kazakhs had a favorable opinion of Russia, while 8% had a negative opinion.
Additionally, the survey revealed that 88 percent support improved ties with Russia, while only 6 percent do not. Kazakhs have a deep love and respect for Russia. This is due to the long and deep shared history between the two nations. Russia helped Kazakhstan become an independent nation in 1991, and ever since then, Kazakhstan has been an ally of Russia. Kazakhs never believed they are different from Russia. In such an atmosphere, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev is trying to link Kazakhstan with the West independent of Russia.
Read More: Putin might be planning a mega Eurasian country with its capital in Kazakhstan
Russia may or may not continue to have a stronghold in Central Asia. However, Putin will undoubtedly make every effort to keep his closest allies in the neighboring countries in his bastion. On Contrary, Tokayev’s actions are ensuring that his departure won’t be amicable. if he keeps moving in this direction.
Right now, it seems like he’s trying to bite off more than he can chew. Therefore, he might not have a happy ending.
