According to the Wall Street Journal, Trump’s share of the nationwide black, Hispanic, and Asian vote in 2016 was two, two, and three points higher, respectively, than Mitt Romney’s in 2012. Even as he lost in 2020, Trump improved his performance among these groups by four, three, and five points, respectively.
While Democrats maintained a majority of black voters and a significant share of Hispanics in the last presidential election, the trend of increasing minority support for Trump is undeniable. Recent polls by the New York Times and Siena College indicate a tie between Trump and Biden among Hispanic voters and Trump securing 20% of the black vote. If these numbers hold in November, it would mark the highest level of black support for a Republican presidential candidate since the Civil Rights Act of 1964.
Trump deserves some credit for this shift. David Shor, a prominent Democratic consultant, observes that racial political polarization had been rising steadily from 1992 until 2016, when it began to reverse. Many initially viewed this as an anomaly, but subsequent elections in 2018 and 2020 confirmed the trend. It is indeed peculiar that Trump initiated an era of racial depolarization.
This shift challenges conventional wisdom. After Barack Obama’s 2008 victory, many believed demographic trends would ensure a lasting Democratic majority, relying on the increasing numbers of young people, minorities, and affluent professionals to keep America blue. This “coalition of the ascendant” reflected both the complacency of the Democratic elite and their dismissive attitude toward working-class whites.
However, the increasing support for Trump among minority voters signals a significant change in the political landscape. It underscores the need to reassess assumptions about voter behavior and demographic trends. Trump’s ability to attract a more diverse electorate may reshape the future of American politics, challenging long-held beliefs about the electorate’s composition and preferences.
The 2016 election shattered many long-held beliefs. Voters Hillary Clinton labeled as a “basket of deplorables” supported Trump across the Rust Belt. Clinton’s identity-focused campaign, featuring black celebrities and symbolic gestures like breaking a glass ceiling, failed to resonate with ordinary women, blacks, and Hispanics, leaving them feeling patronized.
The Democrats’ growing issue with non-white voters is closely tied to their disconnect with the working class. Media outlets are already concerned that Biden’s weak support among blue-collar black and Hispanic voters could jeopardize his re-election chances. It is only now dawning on Democratic strategists that the economic and cultural interests of Latino and white construction workers are remarkably similar. Both groups are frustrated by gender ideology, illegal immigration, and Biden’s green economic policies.
The Democrats appear as the party of a deteriorating regime, desperately holding on to a system that benefits them and their allies. According to New York Times / Siena polls, nearly 70% of voters believe America’s political and economic systems need radical change or a complete overhaul. This sentiment has eroded Democratic support among ethnic minorities and young voters. Trump is currently tied with Biden among 18- to 29-year-olds, a key part of the “coalition of the ascendant” now seemingly ready to defect. Analyst Nate Cohn notes that even many Trump critics begrudgingly admit he challenges an unsatisfactory status quo.
Trump is not the ideal champion for the multiracial working class. His campaign’s economic populism gave way to typical Republican tax cuts once in office. His harsh anti-immigrant rhetoric and awkward attempts to engage with black voters, coupled with his undemocratic behavior after losing the last election, still repel many. However, his promises to “drill, baby, drill” and secure the border increasingly attract workers of all backgrounds.
The multiracial populism Trump has fostered has the potential to reshape American politics for decades. The future belongs to whoever can harness this movement.
