Israel needs to secure itself in a hostile region, especially after the 11-day war with Gaza has revived doubts among some Arab states over the impact of normalising ties with Israel. The Biden administration of the United States is said to be engaging in diplomatic talks with multiple Arab states and trying to convince them to normalise ties with Israel. However, the US has refused to name these Arab states, who might soon sign the Abraham Accords. In the meantime, Israel is taking upon itself the task of building a peaceful and strategically beneficial region. The fundamental consideration of Israel’s latest diplomatic manoeuvres is Iran.
The Shi’ite nation is an existential threat to Israel and Jews, and as such, Tel Aviv seeks to neutralise Tehran. For doing so, Israel needs an alliance and friends in the region. Many might not have noticed, but Israel is trying to strategically encircle Iran. For achieving the same, Israel is reaching out to Jordan, Sudan, Azerbaijan and Oman.
Just when Jordan was cosying up to Iran and preparing to act as Tehran’s client state, Israel stepped in with some shrewd diplomacy to prevent the same. Jordan pledged to transport Iraqi oil through its territory to Egypt, and then across the Mediterranean via pipelines. As a matter of fact, “Iraqi oil” is a misnomer, since this commodity is almost entirely controlled by Iran. However, instead of ranting against Jordan, Israel is looking to strengthen its ties with the country to ensure that Iran does not succeed in its plans to weaponize another country against the Jewish people.
JORDAN
Last week, Jordan’s King Abdullah and Israel’s newly sworn President Isaac Herzog spoke over the phone. The two leaders agreed to strengthen ties in the areas of economics and tourism. The Israeli President “emphasized the importance of the strategic relations between the countries to promote peace and regional development.” Jordan’s King Abdullah, meanwhile, is said to be satisfied by the new Israeli government’s efforts to rebuild relations between the countries.
Recently, Israel’s Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and King Abdullah secretly met in Amman, where Israel struck a deal to sell Jordan an additional 50 million cubic metres of water this year, and allow Jordanian imports to the West Bank to go up from $160 million last year to about $700 million. This was followed by a public meeting between Israel’s foreign minister Yair Lapid and his Jordanian counterpart Ayman Safadi last Thursday. Israel is thus signalling to Jordan that antagonising the Arab world by cosying up to Iran is not feasible when Jordan can benefit instead by enhancing its diplomatic and trade ties with Tel Aviv.
SUDAN
Sudan is a signatory to the Abraham Accord declaration and has normalised ties with Israel. The Arab country which is the centre of a big strategic powerplay between the Sunni Arab world led by Saudi Arabia and the Shi’ite order led by Iran is developing some close military and intelligence ties with Israel, in what comes as worrying news for Tehran. Last month, an Israel private jet affiliated with the Mossad spy agency landed in Khartoum. Sources familiar with the flight say Mossad officials met with Gen. Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, aka Hemetti.
Hemetti is credited by many as the true figure who toppled the country’s former 25-year dictatorship under Omar al-Bashir in 2019.
Sudan has grown close to Saudi Arabia in the past few years, after it dumped Iran. Sudan has tremendous geostrategic value, especially when seen in the context of the significance of the Horn of Africa and the role the allies of Sudan can play in Yemen by making use of Khartoum’s territory. In return of Sudan ditching Iran, the country has been getting immense economic favours from the Arab world. Now, Israel plans to make use of Sudan to encircle and challenge Iran.
Read more: Sudan becomes the latest nation to join the Arab-Israeli alliance in the war against Iran
Sudan realises that it does not need Iran. Russia, the Saudi-led Arab world and Israel are all on its side, and most recently, the United States too has emerged as a friend. So, Sudan is going ahead with pursuing good relations with Tel Aviv in order to in fact, challenge Iran.
AZERBAIJAN
Azerbaijan has repeatedly expressed dissatisfaction with Iran’s support for some Islamist groups in the country, which Tehran has sought to use as leverage over Baku as well as to offset what it fears is Baku’s influence over the large ethnic Azerbaijani minority living in Iran – which Tehran sees as secessionists. Nonetheless, Iran is trying to placate Azerbaijan, since it is aware of Israeli efforts to win over the Turkish ally.
On its part, Israel has expressed a desire to help Azerbaijan rebuild its border areas with Iran. Interestingly, it has also asked Azerbaijan to use the Israeli tactic of building “kibbutzim” or “settlements” in the area, indicating that this was the way Israel was created. The same was communicated to Azerbaijan by Israeli Communications Minister Ayoub Kara, who was visiting the Iran-Azerbaijan border for unspecified reasons. The Israeli Minister told Azerbaijan, “We should send over Israeli companies to help clear off the landmines,” adding, “We can offer the Azerbaijanis the right technology” to rebuild the area.
OMAN
Last month, a phone call between Omani Foreign Minister Badr al-Busaidi and his Israeli counterpart Yair Lapid showed Muscat and Tel Aviv were maintaining contact and good relations. This, despite the fact that Oman is unsure and apprehensive about openly declaring a normalisation of ties with the Jewish state.
Saudi Arabia will push Oman to normalize ties with Israel. Relations between Oman and Saudi Arabia had long been cold despite their shared border. A closer relationship could be an economic boon for Oman, which is struggling to diversify its economy away from oil.
On Wednesday, Saudi Arabia convinced Oman to speak against Iran in a joint statement. The statement, which came after a meeting between Oman’s Sultan Haitham bin Tariq al-Said and Saudi Arabia’s King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud, underlined the importance of countering Iranian aggression in the region. The two sides “stressed the importance of cooperation and dealing in a serious and effective manner with the Iranian nuclear and missile issue with all its components in a way that contributes to realising regional and international security and stability.”
Even if Oman does not immediately normalise ties with Israel, for the country to put on a resistance to Iran would be more than appreciable for Tel Aviv.
Israel is thus seen reaching out to countries which have the potential of turning into Iran hawks, if they aren’t already. Iran is being encircled by the Arab world to its west, and with a growing Taliban to its east, its worries are set to only get exacerbated. The going is set to get very tough for Iran in the foreseeable future.