Portugal is under massive political upheaval. The country held a snap general election on May 18, 2025, following the collapse of Prime Minister Luís Montenegro’s center-right government due to a corruption scandal involving his family’s business dealings. This marked the third general election in just over three years, underscoring the country’s ongoing political instability.
2025 Snap Election Results
Democratic Alliance (AD): Secured 32.7% of the vote and 89 seats in the 230-seat parliament, falling short of the 116 needed for a majority.
Socialist Party (PS): Achieved 23% of the vote and 58 seats, marking one of its worst results since 1987.
Chega’s: Made significant gains with 22.6% of the vote and 58 seats, potentially surpassing the PS once overseas votes are counted.
The center-right AD maintained its lead but failed to secure a majority. Most notably, Chega, led by André Ventura, nearly overtook the Socialist Party in vote share and more than quadrupled its seats compared to just two years ago.
Why Is the Right Surging in Portugal?
1. Public Fatigue with Political Corruption
The corruption scandal involving Montenegro’s family business accelerated public disenchantment with mainstream parties, reinforcing Chega’s message of institutional decay and elite impunity.
2. Economic Strains on Working-Class Families
Rising rents, stagnant wages, and inflation have eroded the middle class. Chega positioned itself as the voice of “forgotten” citizens, promising stronger national control over resources, social aid reform, and immigration limits.
3. Migration and Identity Politics
While Portugal has lower immigration levels than much of Europe, Chega amplified national identity rhetoric and fears over cultural change, common tools in the European far-right playbook.
4. Social Media and Populist Messaging
Ventura’s confrontational style, combined with slick online campaigns and anti-establishment soundbites, resonated strongly with younger, disaffected voters and those outside urban elites.
5. European Echo Chamber
Portugal’s far-right rise aligns with growing support for similar movements across Europe—France’s National Rally, Spain’s Vox, and Italy’s Brothers of Italy. Ventura’s visible alliances with figures like Marine Le Pen and Giorgia Meloni have reinforced his international standing.
Analysis: What This Means for Portugal
1. Governing Will Be Harder, Not Easier
Despite AD’s win, forming a stable government will be challenging. Luís Montenegro refuses to work with Chega, and without a clear majority, the next government may be forced into fragile issue-by-issue agreements, leading to potential legislative deadlock.
2. The Left Is Fragmented
The Socialist Party’s poor performance and leadership fatigue have left the left fractured. Its inability to rally younger or economically distressed voters reflects a loss of connection with its traditional base.
3. Chega as a Political Force
Chega is no longer a protest party; it is a central actor in Portuguese politics. Even if excluded from formal coalitions, its growing parliamentary presence will shape national debates on immigration, law enforcement, education, and the EU.
4. Institutional Risk
Observers fear that the normalization of far-right rhetoric may strain Portugal’s traditionally stable democratic norms. Civic groups have raised alarms about potential rollbacks on civil liberties and minority protections if Chega continues to grow unchecked.
Portugal’s 2025 snap election reflects deeper structural concerns—political disillusionment, economic pressure, and cultural anxieties. The rise of the far right is not an isolated event but part of a broader European transformation. Whether Portugal chooses compromise, confrontation, or a new political alignment in the months ahead will define the health of its democracy for years to come. For now, the right side is quite clearly dominating the political discourse and the public imagination. With current trends, perhaps it is only a matter of time before Chega emerges as the leading party in the country.
